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Ruben Amorim is under no illusions about the criteria for success at Manchester United.
“I will be judged [on] the place that we finish,” Amorim admitted. The Portuguese boss inherited a side slumped in 13th, but the congested nature of the Premier League table ensures that only a handful of points separate almost every club below Liverpool.
After an underwhelming debut, Amorim’s side eventually romped to a 4-0 thumping of Everton in the head coach’s first Premier League fixture at Old Trafford, sending United limping into the top half of the standings – one point below Brentford.
Amorim has described himself as “a dreamer”, but targeting Champions League qualification may even be beyond his expectations after such a wretched start to the campaign under Erik ten Hag.
Using Opta‘s supercomputer which combines betting odds and the company’s in-house statistical data, United have just a 2.4% chance of sneaking into the top four.
There is precisely zero chance of the Red Devils winning the Premier League title – Liverpool are huge favourites in that regard, with a swollen 85.9% probability of retaining top spot come May – and are only outside shouts for third or fourth place.
The expanded Champions League format opens up an extra qualification slot for the two best-performing divisions in European competition. Premier League clubs stumbled on the continental stage last season, slipping behind Italy and Germany in the coefficient race, but have made a commanding start this year and are all-but guaranteed to nab that additional berth.
In the event that fifth place also earns Champions League football, United’s chances of qualification for the top-tier competition shoots up to 9.9%.
It took a shock FA Cup final triumph over Manchester City for United to tip-toe through the Europa League back door last summer. Sixth place could be enough to qualify for Europe’s second-tier competition this term, which would give United an 11.7% chance of returning to the tournament.
Statistically, United’s most likely finishing position is eighth – the same record-low which they sank to last season. The Red Devils have never finished outside the top five in consecutive campaigns throughout the Premier League era, an unwanted piece of history Amorim is hopeful of avoiding.
While the incoming head coach has stressed the need for time. “I truly believe in the players, I know you don’t believe a lot but I do,” Amorim declared. “I want to try new things. You guys don’t think it’s possible, I do.”
|
Position |
Likelihood |
|---|---|
|
1st |
0% |
|
2nd |
0% |
|
3rd |
0.5% |
|
4th |
1.9% |
|
5th |
7.5% |
|
6th |
11.7% |
|
7th |
12.8% |
|
8th |
13.7% |
|
9th |
13.1% |
|
10th |
11.6% |
|
11th |
9.1% |
|
12th |
7.5% |
|
13th |
5.3% |
|
14th |
3.4% |
|
15th |
1.3% |