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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
No, the Winnipeg Jets haven’t already won the Stanley Cup, although one can be excused for feeling that way.
The Jets started the season 12-1-0, becoming the sixth team in NHL history to win 12 of their first 13 games of a season. They’ve outscored everyone in front of the player whom many consider the best goaltender in the world in Connor Hellebuyck. Things are certainly trending in their direction.
Some early-season trends in the NHL stick. Others are a distant memory by the end of the season: Please recall the Edmonton Oilers‘ horrific first month that preceded a resurgent run to the final game of the season in the Stanley Cup Final.
Injuries and slumps happen. Fans get their hopes up, only to be let down.
Here are trends for all 32 teams from the 2024-25 season thus far that we’re testing with our patented (OK, patent-pending) “Trend-o-meter” to see how valid they are — from certain to stick (10) to probably just a blip (1).
Jump to a team:
ANA | BOS | BUF | CGY
CAR | CHI | COL | CBJ
DAL | DET | EDM | FLA
LA | MIN | MTL | NSH
NJ | NYI | NYR | OTT
PHI | PIT | SJ | SEA
STL | TB | TOR | UT
VAN | VGK | WSH | WPG
Atlantic Division
Jim Montgomery will keep his job (by any means necessary)
Despite preseason platitudes from his bosses, Bruins coach Jim Montgomery does not have a contract with Boston beyond this season. That led to some “hot seat” speculation when the Bruins stumbled out of the gate, although they were 6-6-1 by the end of October.
It’s a pressure-packed situation in Boston, as the optics have underscored. Bruins fans have seen Montgomery tear into captain Brad Marchand on the bench after a turnover and bench leading scorer David Pastrnak in the third period of a recent game. Boston players, including Marchand himself, treated the situations like nothing out of the ordinary. But it certainly feels as if Montgomery is desperately trying to get the attention of his team early.
And why not? He’s not the reason that Jeremy Swayman is playing as if he didn’t have a training camp or that management felt Joonas Korpisalo could replace Linus Ullmark. He’s the not the reason that a good complementary player like Elias Lindholm was imported to be a No. 1 center or that they didn’t sufficiently replace Jake DeBrusk‘s offense. It’s his job on the line, though. Do as you will, Monty.
Trend-o-meter rating: 10
Sabres miss the playoffs … again
It was supposed to be different this season. So far, it isn’t. In fact, it’s worse: Buffalo was 6-6-0 through 12 games last season. After 12 games in 2024-25, the Sabres are 4-7-1 for a .375 points percentage, tied for last in the Atlantic with the Montreal Canadiens.
Their defense (26th in the NHL) and goaltending (24th in save percentage) are once again a problem. The theory before the season was that Lindy Ruff, back for his second coaching stint in Buffalo, could potentially get this talented team to score its way out of problems. But that hasn’t happened either: The Sabres were 16th in goals per game (3.00) through 12 games, giving up more (3.50) than they were scoring.
While their offensive analytics tell us they’re actually scoring better than expected, the more promising news is that their underlying defensive numbers at 5-on-5 are better than their actual goals against per game. So there’s a little hope here, if the goaltending can play above replacement levels, and especially if their special teams improve, as Buffalo was 27th on the penalty kill and dead last on the power play (8.6%).
But if the Sabres are going to avoid extending their NHL record playoff drought to a 14th season, they need to get this thing turned around pronto. There’s still a lane for Buffalo in the East if they do.
Trend-o-meter rating: 6
The team can’t score at 5-on-5
Through 11 games, the Red Wings were 30th in 5-on-5 goals (15), just ahead of Anaheim and Nashville. Their nine power-play goals helped boost their overall goals per game to 2.64, which ranked 25th in the NHL. But their even-strength numbers are ghastly, which is surprising coming from a team that ranked eighth last season in 5-on-5 goals.
Detroit doesn’t shoot the puck enough, averaging 23.1 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Last season, the Red Wings were 24th (27.4). When they do get shots, they’re not of the highest quality: Detroit had an expected goals of 2.03 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, worst in the NHL, through 11 games. Its actual offensive output was even worse: 1.68 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
The Red Wings are not getting nearly enough from their depth players such as Vladimir Tarasenko, who mustered three points in his first 10 games. They’ve gotten just two goals at even strength from their defensemen, one by Moritz Seider and one by Simon Edvinsson.
Last season’s performance gives hope that they can flip the script on their scoring this season. But to put it in Motor City terms: In a season when many hoped the Red Wings could put the pedal down and accelerate to the playoffs, their offensive engine is flooded.
Trend-o-meter rating: 5
Sam Reinhart leads the NHL in goals
So maybe it wasn’t just a contract year thing? Reinhart, 28, obliterated his previous career scoring highs with 57 goals and 94 points last season before signing an eight-year, $69 million contract extension with the Panthers; not a bad way to cap off a Stanley Cup-winning season, eh?
The extra cheddar in his wallet hasn’t slowed Reinhart down at all. As of Tuesday, he was tied for the league lead in goals with 10 in 13 games. That puts him ahead of his pace last season (nine goals in 13 games). His chemistry with Aleksander Barkov continues to be palpable, but he has scored with a variety of linemates as well.
Reinhart was 12 goals off the lead of Auston Matthews last season (69 goals in 81 games), finishing second overall in goals scored. He’s in his “fill the back of the net” era. Given his start, a Rocket Richard Trophy isn’t out of the question.
Trend-o-meter rating: 7
Keep getting blown out
Star center Nick Suzuki was recently asked whether he was concerned about the Canadiens’ start, which is behind their points pace from last season. “I wouldn’t say I’m concerned,” he said, via the Montreal Gazette. “I’m a little pissed off with how we’ve got blown out a couple of times. I think we’re a way better team than what we’ve shown.”
Of their first eight defeats, five were by a margin of three or more goals. That includes an 8-2 waxing by the Seattle Kraken and a 7-2 shellacking from the New York Rangers. That has helped relegate them to the second-worst goals against per game in the NHL through 12 games (4.08), something for which their middling offense (23rd, 2.75 goals per game) can’t compensate.
While we’d like to calm the fears of Suzuki, the bottom line is that the Canadiens’ underlying numbers (32nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes) don’t inspire much defensive confidence — especially if Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau continue to hover around replacement level in goal.
Trend-o-meter rating: 8
Will make the playoffs
Based on points percentage, the Senators were inhabiting an Eastern Conference wild-card spot in the first week of November. After years of speculation about which team in the lower half of the Atlantic Division would “make the leap” to contender status, could it end up being the Sens instead of the Sabres, Red Wings or Canadiens?
The answer is a resounding “maybe.” They’re a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of shot-attempt share (14th) and expected goals percentage (14th) at 5-on-5. Their power play is cooking with gas (third overall through 11 games), but their penalty kill is an Easy-Bake Oven by comparison (19th). Their revamped goaltending, with Ullmark joining Anton Forsberg, was around 14th overall in team save percentage but had room for improvement, as Ullmark started the season playing below replacement level.
Look, the Eastern Conference has about three elite teams, a couple more on the cusp and a lot of also-rans early in the season. The Senators can join the playoff party if the 5-on-5 play and goaltending trend up. But we’ve been fooled before by teams looking to emerge from the Atlantic pack.
Trend-o-meter rating: 6
They’re better without Steven Stamkos
The tear-stained No. 91 jerseys have been hung back up in Lightning fans’ closets after Stamkos’ return to Tampa last week. It’s time to ask the question: Are they better off without him?
For all that they lost in leadership and vibes, Tampa Bay is demonstrably a better team having reallocated the money spent on Stamkos to sign Jake Guentzel for its top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.
According to Evolving Hockey, the revamped line has shown growth in several key 5-on-5 metrics since the Stamkos-for-Guentzel switch. Last season’s line had a 46.3% expected goals percentage, as it averaged 3.1 expected goals and 3.8 expected goals against per 60 minutes. In term of actual goals, it averaged 3.2 goals per 60 and 4.1 goals against per 60, earning 53.2% of the shot attempts.
The line of Guentzel, Point and Kucherov has a 55.2% expected goals percentage, with 3.3 expected goals and 2.7 expected goals against — a big improvement defensively. When it comes to actual goals, this trio was averaging a whopping 5.22 goals and 1.25 goals against per 60 minutes through 12 games.
Two caveats. First: Sample size, obviously. Second: Point and Kucherov actually spent slightly more time with Brandon Hagel than with Stamkos last season and posted a better expected goals percentage (59.7%) than any other combination. Their goals (3.97) and goals against (3.33) per 60 minutes is dwarfed by what the new line has put up. (Hagel is skating mostly with center Anthony Cirelli this season and is putting up solid numbers.)
But if the question is whether the Lightning are better on the ice with Guentzel and without Stamkos, the answer is clear.
Trend-o-meter rating: 9
Anthony Stolarz is the answer in goal
The latest incarnation of the Leafs’ goaltending battery features Joseph Woll, a 26-year-old who performed well last season and stopped 54 of 56 shots in three playoff games before an injury stopped him, and Stolarz, 31, who is on this fifth NHL team and backed up Sergei Bobrovsky on the Stanley Cup champion Panthers last season.
Most of the preseason speculation had Woll emerging as “the guy” in Toronto. And yet it’s Stolarz who has started out strongly, with a 4-2-2 record, a .919 save percentage and a 2.38 goals-against average in his first eight appearances. Stolarz has four goals saved above replacement in that span as well.
Woll has already been out of the lineup once this season with an injury. Stolarz hasn’t exactly been a model of health in his career either. That’s the wager GM Brad Treliving placed this season. So far, it’s playing Stolarz that has paid off. He’ll be a key in getting the Leafs into the postseason. If Woll is healthy, though, it still wouldn’t be surprising to see him take the crease back when it matters most.
Trend-o-meter rating: 6
Metropolitan Division
Martin Necas must remain blond
Necas has been on the cusp of stardom before, like when he tallied 71 points in 82 games two seasons ago for the Hurricanes. But he has never had an offensive explosion like this to start a season: 18 points in his first 10 games, including six goals. The difference, obviously, is his hair.
According to The Hockey News, Necas lost a wager with teammate Brendan Lemieux in a stroke-play match at Old Chatham Golf Club in Durham. Along with dropping some money, Necas had to drop some hair dye on his locks, turning them blond per the conditions of the bet.
It’s said that blond(e)s have more fun. Scoring 18 points in the first 10 games is, in fact, pretty fun. Necas signed a two-year bridge contract with the Hurricanes over the summer at a $6.5 million average annual value. He’s making it look like a bargain this season — provided he keeps his golden locks.
Trend-o-meter rating: 10
Kirill Marchenko on pace for 30-plus goals
To understand the joy that is Kirill Marchenko, look no further than this video the Blue Jackets released around Halloween, in which they had players pluck candy from two baskets. Marchenko walked over and proceeded to grab both entire baskets. Realizing his error, Marchenko simply took nearly a dozen individual pieces instead.
TRICK-OR-TREAT 🎃⁰ ⁰To get in the Halloween spirit, we surprised our players with some candy🍬
Get your very own Hat Trick-Or-Treat basket at our Hockey Halloween game tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/Rm0maU2oNI
— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) October 29, 2024
It’s OK to be a little greedy when one is shooting 17.4% to start the season. Marchenko has four goals in his first 11 games, having scored 23 goals in 78 games last season. His top line with Yegor Chinakhov and Sean Monahan is clicking to the tune of 4.3 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. With an increase in ice time of nearly 2 minutes per game, Marchenko looks primed to have his best NHL season as he projects to finish with around 30 goals — and likely more than that.
Trend-o-meter rating: 8
Nico Hischier outscoring Jack Hughes
There have been a few significant goal-scoring surprises on the Devils early this season, unless you were expecting Stefan Noesen (6) and Paul Cotter (6) to have more goals than Sidney Crosby through Nov. 4. But the biggest surprise has been the offensive dominance of captain Nico Hischier, with 10 goals in his first 15 games. His career high for goals in a season is 31 in 81 games in 2022-23.
He leads the Devils in both goals and points (16) early on this season, which means that star center Jack Hughes does not. Since 2020-21, Hughes has finished ahead of Hischier in points in three of four seasons, although injuries played a role in a couple of those campaigns. Hughes has 12 points in 15 games, including four goals, to start the season for the Devils.
There’s every reason to believe Hughes will break out offensively, given that his 8.7% shooting percentage isn’t in line with what he has done in the past three seasons. But there is something to be said for the comfort of productive linemates. Hischier’s unit with Dawson Mercer and Timo Meier has been the Devils’ most productive 5-on-5 unit.
Since both Hughes and Hischier get top-unit power-play time on a group that clicks at 30.4%, it’s not out of the question this could be Hischier’s year statistically. But when Hughes is on, he can stack points on points.
Trend-o-meter rating: 7
The NHL’s worst offensive team
Ilya Sorokin probably knows better than anyone about the Islanders’ offensive failings. After Sorokin and the Islanders lost 1-0 to Detroit on Oct. 22, Eric Hornick of MSG Network noted that Sorokin had lost 11 games in his career when allowing one goal or fewer (a record of 44-4-7). It was actually the second time this season Sorokin lost a 1-0 game, as the Blues defeated the Islanders 1-0 on Oct. 17.
Through 12 games, the Islanders were 31st in the NHL in 2.25 goals-per-game average. Injuries to Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair played a part in that, but players such as Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Noah Dobson were off to slow starts as well.
A look under the hood shows a sizable gulf between the Islanders’ expected goals (2.62) and actual output (1.84) at 5-on-5, thanks in part to a paltry 6.1% shooting percentage. Their power play was at a 20.4% conversion rate last season; through 12 games, the Islanders conversion rate was 12.5%. They’ll get healthier, and the cyclical metrics will cycle into something more positive. Are they a bottom-five scoring team? Probably. But they might not be the worst at the end of the day.
Trend-o-meter rating: 5
Igor Shesterkin on track for the Vezina Trophy
There’s a whole lot that’s gone right for the Rangers at the start of the season, from Artemi Panarin‘s scorching start to Alexis Lafreniere looking like a point-per-game player to winning eight of their first 11 games. The foundation for all of it, as ever, has been their goaltending led by Igor Shesterkin.
“Shesty” has a 6-2-1 record with a .933 save percentage and a 2.22 goals-against average. His 11.6 goals saved above expected is second to Lukas Dostal of the Anaheim Ducks, per Money Puck. Stathletes has Shesterkin with the lead in goals saved above expected in all situations with 13.8, well ahead of Dostal (9.9).
Shesterkin hasn’t been a Vezina finalist since he won the award for the first time in 2021-22, the same season he was a finalist for the Hart Trophy. His numbers dipped from his sterling .935 save percentage in the following two seasons. Having backup Jonathan Quick post stellar numbers probably didn’t help his case. But Shesterkin looks awesome off the hop this season, looking very smart for not signing a contract extension before what could be another season of postseason hardware for him.
Trend-o-meter rating: 8
The goaltending is terrible
There was a time when coach John Tortorella’s system would insulate his team’s goaltending. That hasn’t necessarily been the case in Philadelphia; the Flyers’ team save percentage ranked 21st in his first season (.893) and fell to 31st last season (.884), which saw them part ways with starter Carter Hart, who was charged with sexual assault in London, Ontario, in January.
There was some hope that the Flyers’ duo of Samuel Ersson and Ivan Fedotov could stabilize the position. The early returns are … not good. Through 12 games, the Flyers were 31st in the NHL with an .867 team save percentage. Fedotov in particular has struggled, to the tune of minus-5.1 goals saved above expected in three games, per Money Puck. He had a ghastly .821 save percentage in that span, compared to .901 for Ersson.
There’s always a chance Fedotov finds his game, although goalie pundits have wondered if that’s possible given questions about his agility and puck tracking. There is, however, another possible solution for the Flyers: rookie Aleksei Kolosov of Belarus, who was called up from the AHL in October. Could the talented 22-year-old reverse the fortunes of the Flyers netminders?
Trend-o-meter rating: 7
Michael Bunting is a bust
The play of forward Michael Bunting probably isn’t that high in the list of Penguins fans’ concerns, what with the team’s struggling defensive game, it’s lack of success in the standings and the existential crisis about the franchise’s near future due to the age of its superstar core. But it is a concern.
Bunting came over from the Hurricanes in last season’s Jake Guentzel deadline deal, as a way to give the Penguins a veteran forward in their top six after shipping out Sidney Crosby‘s linemate. He produced after arriving in Pittsburgh, to the tune of 19 points in 21 games. After 12 games this season, Bunting now has 20 points in 33 games — the 29-year-old has just one assist in his first 12 games, skating to a minus-5.
“I’ve never had a start like this, so I’m trying my best to get out of it,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s frustrating for any athlete when things aren’t bouncing your way, even though I feel like I’ve had a lot of chances.”
His ice time has dropped from 17:19 last season to 14:33 this season, as Bunting is now playing in the team’s bottom six. There’s still plenty of time for him to find his game — and his time in Toronto showed he can hang with high-end talent — but in a month of brutal starts for the Penguins, Bunting’s was particularly disconcerting. Although his goal Tuesday night was a start.
Trend-o-meter rating: 7
Alex Ovechkin is on pace to score his 900th goal this season
Ovechkin has apparently decided he wants to catch Wayne Gretzky this season, based on the available evidence. With seven goals in his first 11 games — and only one of them on a power play — Ovechkin is 34 away from tying Gretzky for the most career goals in NHL history.
His pace for an 82-game season: 52 goals and 104 points, which would be the first time Ovechkin has cracked 100 points since 2009-10. It’s a pace that would eclipse anything a 39-year-old player as accomplished offensively in the NHL. It’s a pace that not only would break Gretzky’s record by season’s end but make Ovechkin the first NHL player to score 900 career goals.
While it might seem absurd to expect any of this to happen for a player of Ovechkin’s mileage … he’s looked fantastic this season. Full steam ahead for the Russian Machine.
Trend-o-meter rating: 8
Central Division
Tyler Bertuzzi hasn’t found his game
Bertuzzi signed a four-year deal with the Blackhawks in the club’s effort to surround Connor Bedard with higher grade offensive talent. While the two have rarely played together at 5-on-5, they’ve seen ample time together on the Blackhawks power play. Chicago has scored six goals with the duo on the man advantage, with Bertuzzi netting two of them.
At even strength, Bertuzzi hasn’t been that much of a difference-maker, with two goals and no assists in his first 13 games. He hasn’t been the sandpaper-covered forechecker on every shift. But his play has seen an uptick lately as Bertuzzi gets more comfortable on his fourth team in three seasons. He might not end up with 21 goals and 22 assists in 80 games like he did with the Maple Leafs, but his production will get going.
Trend-o-meter rating: 2
Cale Makar will lead all players in scoring
It was in the ether that Makar was going to do something exceptional offensively this season. His 2.8 points per 60 minutes last season in 77 games was the highest average of his career, leading to a career-best 90 points. At a minimum, Makar looked primed to become the seventh defenseman in NHL history to break 100 points, and the first since Erik Karlsson tallied 101 in 2022-23. But could he do something even more exceptional?
Through 12 games, Makar was tied for the NHL lead with 21 points (five goals, 16 assists). Only one defenseman in NHL history has ever lead the league in points for all skaters, and it’s someone mentioned frequently in the same breath as Makar: Bobby Orr, who did it twice: 1969-70 (120) and 1974-75 (135). In fact, Orr was the only defenseman to lead the NHL in scoring through the first month of the season until Makar joined him this season.
Makar is an offensive force of nature who is underestimated at one’s own peril. But he’s pushing against history. He hasn’t played more than 77 games in a season — witness his injury earlier this week in a game against Seattle. And Connor McDavid has returned to the Oilers with another Art Ross Trophy on his mind (among other trophies).
Trend-o-meter rating: 3
Is Wyatt Johnston OK?
Few young players in the NHL had the opportunity to level up more than Johnston this season. He was projected to play in the middle on the Stars’ top line with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, filling in for the retired Joe Pavelski. But they only spent a limited time together. Johnston has played most of his minutes with Jamie Benn down the lineup.
Through 11 games, Johnston has a respectable six points, although that’s off his considerable 2.8 points per 60 minutes pace last season. More concerning is that he’s scored only one goal in 11 games, after posting seasons of 24 and 32 goals in his first two NHL campaigns.
His individual expected goals at 5-on-5 is in line with Hintz and Tyler Seguin (0.97). But his overall shooting percentage was just 4 in those 11 games, after he was around 15% in each of his first two seasons. Johnston remains one of the better young offensive players in the league. The goal scoring will come. At least Dallas hopes so.
Trend-o-meter rating: 2
Kirill Kaprizov will win MVP
Kaprizov has been an MVP for the Wild over the past few seasons, scoring over 40 goals in each of the past three. Last season, he had 46 goals and 96 points — that was 16 more goals and 30 more points than the next leading scorer on the team.
That kind of margin usually gets a star player serious Hart Trophy consideration for league MVP, but Minnesota didn’t qualify for the postseason and the performance was ignored. In fact, Kaprizov’s best finish for MVP was in 2021-22, his second NHL season, when he tallied a career-best 47 goals and 108 points, finishing seventh in the Hart voting.
The Wild are off to a great start. Their eight wins in 11 games was the second most they’ve had in franchise history in that span. (They went 9-2-0 in 11 games to start the 2006-07 season.) Kaprizov has been a major reason why: 21 points in 12 games, with seven goals and 14 assists. That’s eight points clear of Matt Boldy, the second-leading scorer on the team.
Kaprizov is certainly in that category of players that have been waiting for their next shot at postseason hardware — his only win was the Calder Trophy for rookie of the year in 2020-21. If the Wild are a playoff team and Kaprizov is driving the bus, he could steer it right into a finalist spot for the Hart.
Trend-o-meter rating: 7
From disaster to rebuild?
The Predators are the NHL’s biggest disappointment of the season. They’re in last place in the Central Division with a 4-8-1 record with a minus-13 goal differential. That’s after the blockbuster free-agent signings of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, which have failed to juice the 29th best offense in the NHL. GM Barry Trotz’s reaction? Telling 102.5 The Game on Tuesday that if things don’t turn around, “I’m going to start our rebuild plan.”
That caused a huge stir around the NHL, but Trotz later clarified to The Tennessean that the “rebuild” could simply consist of having young players get a shot over struggling veterans. He specifically said his veteran core players “aren’t going anywhere.” Trotz is trying to thread the needle by icing a competitive team while allowing a collection of prospects to blossom. But even as the Predators struggle, Trotz said he’s not tearing the team down.
Trend-o-meter rating: 3
Goaltending can carry them to the playoffs
The Blues were an offensively challenged team even before losing top center Robert Thomas to a fractured ankle. Their 2.69 goals per game in their first 13 games ranked 24th in the NHL. That meant the Blues’ best chance at winning would be through solid team defense to compensate for that lack of scoring. Alas, they averaged 3.08 goals against per game.
It could have been worse were it not for the goaltending battery of Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. Binnington (.904 save percentage, 2.77 goals-against average) and Hofer (.903, 3.39) helped propel the Blues into the top 10 in team save percentage early in the season.
The Blues aren’t an exemplary defensive team under coach Drew Bannister, as they’re 23rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.57) and actual goals surrendered (2.72). While their goaltenders have been solid, both Binnington and Hofer have played below expected, per Stathletes. So there’s room for improvement there, especially from Binnington, who could end up as Team Canada’s starter in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Trend-o-meter rating: 4
Can Connor Ingram recapture the magic?
As the Arizona Coyotes’ players joined the Utah Hockey Club this season, the newest NHL team appeared to have a strong foundation on which to build thanks to 27-year-old Ingram. He posted back-to-back season of .907 save percentage goaltending and tied for the NHL lead in shutouts with six last season.
But in his first season in Salt Lake City, fans haven’t seen too much of that Connor Ingram. He’s 5-2-3 with an .881 save percentage and a 3.57 goals-against average. According to Stathletes, he has a minus-7 goals saved above expected after finishing with a plus-3.4 goals saved above expected last season.
Ingram was a fantastic story in the Coyotes’ swan song season, winning the Masterton Trophy for perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey after nearly retired due to obsessive compulsive disorder and lingering depression before seeking help from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance program. He’s a quality goalie. It’s been a rough start. He’ll persevere.
Trend-o-meter rating: 3
Jets will win the Western Conference
It’s one thing for a team to have a hot start. The Jets certainly had one, with eight straight wins to start the 2024-25 campaign, tied for the third longest streak in NHL history. It’s another thing to be an absolute steamroller to start the season. Through 12 games, Winnipeg scored 59 goals. That’s the highest total in a team’s first 12 games since the 1995-96 Penguins scored 63 times. That team had Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Ron Francis and Sergei Zubov. The 2024-25 Jets … do not.
That’s part of what’s made this start special for the Jets. Through 12 games, they had eight players with 10 or more points. Every player on the roster that appeared in at least eight games had a goal, save for defenseman Dylan DeMelo and forward Morgan Barron, a fourth-liner. The Jets scored six or more goals for three straight games for the first time in franchise history.
They’re shooting the puck at 5-on-5 around the same rate as last season, but it’s finding the back of the net more often: a 9.8% shooting percentage at 5-on-5, up from 8.7% last season, and the league’s best power play (44.4%). The scary part is that they haven’t needed Connor Hellebuyck to be an all-world goalie yet this season, although he and Eric Comrie have combined for the fourth best save percentage in the NHL through 12 games (.913).
Does a hot start portend postseason success? Well, let’s look at the two teams that started the season hotter than anyone in NHL history: The 1993-94 Maple Leafs and the 2006-07 Sabres, both of whom won 10 straight games to start the season. They also share another commonality: Both advanced to the conference final in those season … and lost.
Trend-o-meter rating: 5
Pacific Division
Trevor Zegras has lost the vibes
The third anniversary of Zegras’ lob pass over the net to Sonny Milano is Dec. 7. Which is to say that the greatest highlight of the Ducks forward’s career is now three years old. Since then, he finished second for the Calder Trophy in 2021-22 with 61 points, and had 65 points in 81 games in his third season. But Zegras struggled through an injury-shortened 31-game 2023-24 season (15 points) under head coach Greg Cronin, and he’s not producing again this season.
Zegras, 23, has one goal and two assists in 12 games this season, skating 16:36 per game. He’s moved around the lineup, from playing on Mason McTavish‘s wing to playing at his natural spot at center. While he doesn’t have the offensive numbers, Zegras has received good notices for trying to become a 200-foot player and hone his defensive game.
Every great young NHL star needs to have their defensive reckoning. Jack Hughes, a friend of Zegras, leveled up to superstar status once he played well in all three zones. There’s still hope that Zegras can get there, too, but the offensive production has struggled during these growing pains.
Trend-o-meter rating: 7
Rebuild schmebuild, the Flames are a playoff team
GM Craig Conroy has called it a “retool” in Calgary. “Bringing in young guys, with our veteran players that we have here, we believe we can turn this thing around,” he said. That seemed a little outrageous based on the fact that (a) the Flames shed so many veteran players from their roster over the last year and (b) the clearest path back to relevance in the NHL is to tank hard and collect franchise pillars.
But the Flames were in a playoff spot through the first month of the season, thanks to goaltending that ranked in the top 10 in team save percentage and some strong offensive performances from players like defenseman Rasmus Andersson (11 points) and a resurgent Jonathan Huberdeau (three goals, eight assists).
Will it last? The Flames have been defiant in answering that question so far. But given some of their underlying numbers rank in the bottom half of the league — and that teams like the Oilers and Avalanche look ready to get rolling — that might not last much longer.
Trend-o-meter rating: 2
Their Stanley Cup hangover is a migraine
It’s tough to climb the mountain again when you’ve been a fingernail away from the summit. Imagine the Oilers, staring up at that mountain on opening night after losing in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. How many of them wish they could just simulate the season to get to the postseason, like in a video game?
The Oilers were a middling 6-6-1 through 13 games, which was still a major improvement over the 3-9-1 mark they had over the first 13 games last season. An injury to Connor McDavid cost the superstar three games, although the Oilers went 2-1-0 during that span. They need their captain back, because if there’s been one key issue with the Oil thus far, it’s been their offense.
Through 13 games, the Oilers ranked 30th in goals per game (2.38). Only Leon Draisaitl and McDavid were over 10 points in the first 13 games of the season. Players like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (one goal), Viktor Arvidsson (one goal) and Zach Hyman (two goals) have yet to get rolling offensively.
Hyman had 54 goals last season while shooting 18.6%. This season, he’s at just 5.7%. Shooting percentage is elastic. So is power-play efficiency, which sits at just 14.8% for the Oilers this season after converting at a 26.3% rate last season. Edmonton will be fine offensively. Now, about that penalty kill (60%, 32nd in the NHL) and goaltending (.881 save percentage for Stuart Skinner) …
Trend-o-meter rating: 3
Jim Hiller was the right coach at the right time
Hiller went 21-12-1 after replacing coach Todd McLellan last season, leading the Kings to a first-round loss to the Oilers, as they are wont to do. GM Rob Blake ran it back with Hiller as his new head coach and the early returns are that it was a solid choice.
The Kings sprinted out to an 8-3-3 start in their first 14 games, sitting atop the Pacific Division. Hiller has maintained the Kings’ solid defensive play, as they led the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes (1.99) at 5-on-5. But their offense has ticked up from last season, as the Kings are 8th in 5-on-5 scoring per 60 minutes.
Hiller has managed the roster well, from deployment of goalie Darcy Kuemper to moving Kevin Fiala around in the lineup to trying to keep Quinton Byfield in the middle rather than the wing. Byfield’s line with Alex Laferriere and Warren Foegele has been one of the team’s best when assembled.
There were some high-profile coaches hired in the offseason, from Craig Berube in Toronto to Lindy Ruff in Buffalo to Dan Bylsma getting another shot in Seattle. Hiller wasn’t usually mentioned among them, but he has the Kings playing great hockey — even without the injured Drew Doughty.
Trend-o-meter rating: 7
Will not finish with the league’s worst record
Through 14 games, the Sharks have a points percentage of .357. That’s terrible, but not the worst: The Flyers (.346 in 13 games) were actually in the NHL’s basement through Wednesday’s games. San Jose was the odds-on favorite to finish with the league’s worst record again, as a team in a full-fledged rebuild. Are they better than expected?
The Sharks are getting strong performances from some veteran players like Mikael Granlund (14 points in 14 games) and Tyler Toffoli (six goals). That’s offset the early-season struggles for rookies Will Smith (three points in 11 games) and Macklin Celebrini, who has been limited to two games due to an early-season injury. Goaltending can be the great equalizer, and Mackenzie Blackwood (.894 save percentage) and Vitek Vanecek (.902), who had 49-save win over Columbus this week, have played well.
All of that established, the mission remains clear: Put the “tank” back in the Shark Tank. They’re competitive and hopefully more “fun bad” than “bad bad” this season, but it’s in the Sharks’ best interests to be the worst.
Trend-o-meter rating: 2
Brandon Montour was one of the offseason’s best signings
Montour was going to get paid this summer, because puck-moving offensive defensemen are always at a premium in the NHL. After winning the Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers, Montour signed a seven-year, $49,999,999 contract with the Kraken to be their top point-producing D-man.
Through 13 games, Montour has been as good as advertised, with four goals and six assists in 13 games. The 30-year-old blueliner has produced at even strength (seven points) and the power play (three points) while skating 23:43 per game.
His pairing with Jamie Oleksiak has been solid at 5-on-5, with just 1.56 goals against per 60 minutes. This is what the Kraken wanted out of this free-agent investment, and Montour has delivered.
Trend-o-meter rating: 8
Elias Pettersson is overpaid and underwhelming
Criticism of the Canucks star has become its own cottage industry in Vancouver. The center is in the first season of an eight-year, $92.8 million contract extension, and has produced two goals and three assists in 11 games, skating to a minus-1.
He’s had run-in with teammate J.T. Miller at practice, with a report by Sportsnet claiming the team wanted him to get “tougher.” Vancouver media has enlisted pundits like former Vancouver coach Bruce Boudreau to break down Pettersson’s game: “He doesn’t look excited when he plays and gets frustrated very easily.”
Pettersson was an 89-point player last season. He was a 102-point player in the season before that. There’s an enormous amount of pressure on the Canucks after advancing to the second round next season, and on Pettersson to live up to the heft of this contract. They’ll both be fine by season’s end.
Trend-o-meter rating: 1
The Knights are an offensive juggernaut
There was some concern before the season that the Golden Knights’ offense might be muted. They were thin on the wing. They lost leading scorer Jonathan Marchessault to free agency. Vegas was middle of the pack last season (3.21 goals per game), so how much more offensive pop could be expected?
Turns out, a bunch more of it. The Golden Knights averaged 4.5 goals per game through 12 games this season. That’s included some real MLB-level scores, like their 8-4 win over the Avalanche and a 7-3 win over the Sharks. But in those 12 games, the Knights scored at least three goals in 11 of them. Only Winnipeg had a more proficient offense to open the season.
They’re led by one of the best lines in the NHL this season: Jack Eichel (three goals, 13 assists) in the middle of Ivan Barbashev (seven goals, five assists) and Mark Stone (five goals, 15 assists) who leads them in scoring. Pavel Dorofeyev, who had 13 goals in his official rookie season in 2023-24, has jumped out to seven goals in 12 games on the team’s second unit with Tomas Hertl (12 points in 12 games). All of them contribute to Vegas’ power play, which ranked 3rd in the NHL through 12 games.
Expect more Golden goals from the Knights this season.
Trend-o-meter rating: 8