Malik Nabers vs. Marvin Harrison Jr. Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Can either first-year WR beat Jayden Daniels?

The offensive stars from the historically loaded 2024 NFL Draft class got off to a lukewarm start in early September. Many analysts and pundits were sounding the panic alarm after multiple rookie quarterbacks and receivers posted Week 1 duds. 

Daniels, the reigning Heisman-winning QB and the No. 2 overall pick, didn’t throw a touchdown in his first two NFL games for the Commanders. Harrison, a stud receiver and the Cardinals’ pick at No. 3, caught just one ball for four yards in Week 1. The Giants’ Nabers caught five for 66, a better debut but still underwhelming for the No. 6 selection in a dynamic offensive class. 

But oh, what a difference a few weeks can make.

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Fast forward to Week 4 and Daniels is 2-1 for Washington after upsetting Joe Burrow’s Bengals on national television. The LSU product completed 21-of-23 pass attempts for 254 yards and two TDs in the Monday Night Football victory, and he ran for another 39 yards and a score. The effort, capped off by a game-sealing dime to Terry McLaurin, has been widely discussed as one of the better QB performances of the year. 

Nabers and Harrison Jr. took even less time to take the pro football world by storm. Nabers followed a tepid Week 1 showing with 10 catches, 127 yards, and a TD against Daniels’ Commanders in Week 2. He built on that with eight catches, 82 total yards, and two TDs in a Week 3 win over the Browns in Cleveland. 

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Harrison Jr. might have experienced the most dramatic swing from Week 1 to Week 3, though. His one-catch showing on opening weekend had some impatient fans calling him a “bust.” The show he has put on since Week 2 has some fans pondering if he might already be one of the league’s best. MHJ hauled in four passes for 130 yards in Arizona’s Week 2 drubbing of the Rams, then added another five catches for 64 yards and a score in a Week 3 loss to Detroit. 

So, who’s the early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year? The QB with the winning record should be the frontrunner, right? Let’s take a look at the Caesars’ futures, reveal where these three offensive studs rank on the ROY odds board, and briefly discuss whether either receiver has a realistic chance of beating Daniels. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year 2024 odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Some insights provided by BetMGM.

As you can see, the trio of Daniels, Nabers, and Harrison Jr. sit as the clear favorites out of the gates. This is especially noteworthy because Bears QB and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams opened as the odds-on favorite on every sportsbook this summer, and Broncos QB Bo Nix represents the biggest liability to nearly every major book to date.

Williams opened on BetMGM at +200 after the Bears selected him first, and the ensuing action over the following couple of months shortened him to as low as +120. However, a rocky start in Chicago — coinciding with Daniels, Nabers, and MHJ exploding onto the scene — has pushed Williams to 60-to-1.

Nix, meanwhile, remains BetMGM’s highest liability. He represents over 22 percent of all Off. ROY tickets and money wagered. This could have a little to do with Denver and other states being around Nevada betting a bit more. The Broncos mounting a big Week 3 upset over the undefeated Bucs probably didn’t hurt either. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Why Daniels will win

Daniels has already made a bigger year-to-year impact on his team than any other offensive rookie.

Washington is 2-1, already halfway to its win total in 2023. The Commanders are coming off a huge upset victory over a perennial contender in primetime, a stunning performance in which Daniels looked almost perfect.

The 23-year-old quieted the critics who said he ‘wasn’t that good’ or couldn’t throw TDs, leaving the country’s collective jaws dropped with this beautiful 55-yard heave and this insane game-sealing dot, both to McLaurin. 

Daniels has the keys to a Washington castle that desperately needed a new gatekeeper. Between the organizational stain from disgraced former owner Daniel Snyder and the brutal run by 2023 NFL interception leader Sam Howell, a culture shift was needed for the football club that calls the nation’s capital home.

Daniels, head coach Dan Quinn, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury are delivering just that, and the results have been very fun to watch so far. Kingsbury in particular might be the most crucial to the rookie’s success. The coordinator can draw from his successes and failures while coaching the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, a mobile QB with a strong arm just like Daniels. 

Quarterbacks always seem to get bonus points from NFL awards voters, especially QBs with highlight-reel plays who play for a good team and turn heads in big moments. Daniels has already checked a lot of those boxes, and the Caesars futures boards tell us that Washington (+4000 to win the Super Bowl) is better than Arizona (+5000) and New York (+22500), so it’s safe to call Daniels the best bet right now.

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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Can Nabers or Harrison Jr. beat Daniels? 

Anything’s possible, as Kevin Garnett once yelled. Of course, things are much more probable when teams rack up wins — but in the case of Rookie of the Year, sheer raw talent often wins regardless. 

Wide receivers — specifically, Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson — have won Offensive Rookie of the Year two of the past three seasons. The other three winners over the past half-decade were QBs (Murray, Justin Herbert, and most recently C.J. Stroud). 

If Nabers or Harrison Jr. flirt with rookie records and/or serve as the main catalyst in a bunch of big wins this season, they will have a real chance. They’ve each already racked up huge stats and multi-touchdown games, and both the Giants and Cardinals have suddenly demonstrated that they can once again hang with the big dogs of the NFL. 

If both Nabers and MHJ remain awesome, it could hurt both their chances at the award if Daniels finishes with a winning record and/or has above-average numbers. The wide receivers could quite literally cancel each other out by splitting first-place votes or drawing seconds and thirds behind Daniels.

Nabers’ biggest obstacle, though, is the fact that the Giants stink. Harrison’s biggest obstacle is that he’s dependent on Murray’s health, which has been a big question mark for the majority of the small-statured QB’s career.

For now, the race is far too up in the air to invest a boatload of futures dough — but if we’re picking an Offensive Rookie of the Year right now, it has to be Daniels.