Predicting Billy Donovan’s starting 5, Bulls’ rotation

Predicting Billy Donovan’s starting 5, Bulls’ rotation originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago

Presented by Nationwide Insurance Agent Jeff Vukovich

Name the Chicago Bulls starting five. It’s not as easy as you might think.

A logical attempt of Josh Giddey, Coby White, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams and Nikola Vučević may be too defensively challenged for coach Billy Donovan’s preference. It also begs the question whether it leans fully enough into the youth movement that management is undertaking. But it’s still a safe bet.

Name the Bulls’ nine- or 10-player rotation. It’s not as easy as you might think.

Ayo Dosunnu and Jalen Smith would seem to be the only locks. Lonzo Ball’s almost unprecedented comeback attempt from a cartilage transplant, three left knee surgeries and over 2 ½ years away from NBA action still faces the arduous task of training camp.

And who knows if the competitive edge and physical style that Matas Buzelis flashed at NBA Summer League will translate to the regular season. Donovan hasn’t been the type of coach to dole out entitlement minutes.

So it’s a legitimately intriguing exercise. And as players start to trickle into the Advocate Center over the coming weeks in advance of next month’s training camp, here’s one guess at it:

The case for Giddey, White, LaVine, Williams, Vučević

This represents the most logical possibility.

Giddey is the shiny new toy, acquired in the Alex Caruso trade, and coming off a role for Australia at the Paris Olympics that he’ll likely replicate with the Bulls—ball dominant playmaker.

White is attacking the offseason lab again, not content to rest on his laurels as a runner-up finisher for the NBA’s Most Improved Player. White proved the ability to be a lead guard last season. But with Giddey’s arrival, he can play on or off the ball, more fully underscoring his strengths.

With DeMar DeRozan signed-and-traded to Sacramento, his understudy in Williams will be asked to produce at a higher rate in a larger role. Starting as the primary defender in this lineup is essential.

As for the holders, LaVine’s tenuous future is where some uncertainty begins. He’ll almost certainly be in a reduced usage rate role for the second straight season given Giddey’s arrival and White’s ascension. But bringing him off the bench would seem to be a surefire way to torpedo any chances at a professional partnership, not to mention further damage his trade value.

Somewhat similarly, starting Jalen Smith over Vučević just to fully lean into a youth movement would be another massive shock.

The rotational locks

Dosunmu has handled anything thrown at him with aplomb during his three stellar seasons in Chicago. Start with him outside the rotation; he’ll work his way back. Start him, bring him off the bench, he’ll contribute two-way toughness. He’s a lock for minutes.

So is Smith, signed to fit the youth movement and bring his unique, stretch-5 skillset and athleticism to the second unit.

From this perspective, those are the only rotational locks. Ball’s health is too uncertain. Buzelis is merely one of many recent draft picks—Dalen Terry, Julian Phillips—that the Bulls are trying to develop, albeit the highest-profile one.

The case for 10-player rotation

In the past, Donovan has played 10 deep at times but has preferred to stick to a nine-man rotation. That featured consistent heavy minutes for DeRozan and White and, before last season, LaVine.

Given the number of development projects on the Bulls’ hands and Ball’s health uncertainty, it makes more sense to feature a 10-man rotation. Especially because if Ball makes it through training camp to continue his comeback attempt, he’ll certainly be on a minutes restriction come the regular season.

Assuming Ball is healthy, pencil him in as the eighth rotational piece, joining Dosunmu and Smith.

Buzelis versus Torrey Craig is where the real battle begins. Given that Craig will be professional regardless of his role and is a veteran mentor on an expiring deal, look for Buzelis and the youth movement to prevail. That’s nine.

That leaves one spot for four players—Terry, Phillips, Chris Duarte and Jevon Carter. Given that Terry has the positional size to guard bigger players, the guess here is that he’ll get first crack. Phillips showed flashes of promise last season, so he can’t be ruled out in what surely will be a fluid situation.

Duarte and Carter appear to be on the outside looking in for now. We think. For a team projected by most oddsmakers to miss the playoffs, projecting the rotation isn’t as easy as one might think.

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