Breaking down the UCL draw: Easy road for Real Madrid and Liverpool, panic for PSG?

Well, the draw for the league phase of the 2024-24 UEFA Champions League is complete after some fun with computers, big UEFA-branded buttons (ably pushed by Cristiano Ronaldo) and a ton of fixtures, let’s take a breath and break things down! Which elite teams got an easy draw? How does the pathway look for defending champions Real Madrid? What about Manchester City? And how about Paris Saint-Germain without Kylian Mbappé?

With the opponents known — and a full schedule of fixtures to follow on Saturday — ESPN’s experts break down the draw for some of the biggest teams as well as their chances of reaching the knockout phase.

Jump to a team:
Arsenal | Aston Villa | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona
Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund | Liverpool | Man City
PSG | Real Madrid

MANCHESTER CITY

Home opponents: Inter, Club Brugge, Feyenoord. Sparta Prague
Away opponents: PSG, Juventus, Sporting Lisbon, Slovan Bratislava

Analysis: Man City have become Champions League experts under Pep Guardiola, but while their league phase draw could have been worse, it also could have been kinder. They avoided Real Madrid and Bayern Munich in Pot 1, but a trip to Paris Saint-Germain — where they lost in the group stage in 2021 — represents a tough test, even though manager Luis Enrique can no longer call upon Kylian Mbappe.

Juventus were among the strongest teams in Pot 2 and not only were City paired with them, but they will have to travel to Turin. Throw in an away game at Sporting Lisbon, and Guardiola’s team will have to navigate a tricky fixture list on the road.

The upside for City is their home fixtures and it’s worth remembering that they haven’t lost a Champions League game at the Etihad Stadium since defeat to Lyon in September 2018. Home games against Inter, Club Brugge, Feyenoord and Sparta Prague shouldn’t give them many problems, and taking 12 points from those matches should get them within touching distance of a place in the top eight.

Ultimately, that will be Guardiola’s first goal; to make sure City get a bye into the last-16 and don’t have to bother with a two-legged play-off. If nothing else, Guardiola won’t want the hassle of two extra games shoehorned into an already packed campaign.

City last failed to reach the Champions League knock-out rounds in 2012, and they won’t expect to break that streak this season. They will have to cash in on a kind home fixture list, but after going 31 European matches unbeaten at the Etihad, they are more than capable of doing so. Trips to PSG and Juventus are the most problematic and might become even more so depending on where they land in the schedule.

Chances of advancing: Anything less than a top-eight finish will be a disappointment. They should reach the last-16 for the 12th year in a row. — Rob Dawson

LIVERPOOL

Home opponents: Real Madrid, Leverkusen, Lille, Bologna
Away opponents: RB Leipzig, AC Milan, PSV Eindhoven, Girona

Analysis: Liverpool’s biggest bonus from the draw is that their toughest opponents must travel to Anfield. Spanish champions and reigning Champion League kings Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, last season’s invincible Bundesliga champions, are the big danger to Liverpool, but Arne Slot’s side won’t have to play them away due to the format of the new competition.

The prize for all of the teams with expectations of winning the Champions League is to finish in the top two of the league stage in order to seal the best path to the final, so Liverpool have every chance of winning all eight games because of the way the fixtures have fallen for them. Remaining home games against Lille and Bologna will not be a worry for Liverpool, while none of their away games — RB Leipzig, AC Milan, PSV Eindhoven, Girona — could be classed as daunting fixtures. It could have been a different story had Slot’s side been forced to travel to Madrid and Leverkusen.

In many ways, this really is a dream draw for Liverpool and they couldn’t have hand-picked their schedule any better.

Where are the potential pitfalls? Real and Leverkusen will still be a challenge at Anfield, despite the home advantage, while AC Milan will be backed by a raucous crowd at San Siro. But let’s not try to make this draw sound worse than it is. Liverpool will be delighted with it and they have a real chance of banking enough wins to top the league.

Chances of advancing: Liverpool will coast into the knock-out stage, and could even win all eight games. — Mark Ogden

ARSENAL

Home opponents: Paris Saint-Germain, Shakhtar Donetsk, Dinamo Zagreb, AS Monaco
Away opponents: Inter Milan, Atalanta, Sporting Lisbon, Girona

Analysis: Arsenal avoided champions Real Madrid as well as the team (Bayern Munich) that knocked them out at the quarterfinal stage in 2023-24, and so Mikel Arteta can be reasonably content with their draw. Facing PSG without Mbappe should be a more palatable proposition, too, although Inter Milan are Serie A title-holders and reached the Champions League Final just two years ago.

Arteta has been keen to add strength in depth in the transfer market — so he can rotate his team across various competitions without the level of performance dropping too much — and this fixture list should afford him some breathing space to do that, with favorable-looking home games against Shakhtar, Dinamo Zagreb and AS Monaco. A test of the Gunners’ progress under Arteta will come against Sporting, however, given the Portuguese side knocked them out of the Europa League in March 2023 in a two-legged tie that featured an entertaining 2-2 draw in Lisbon. Atalanta finished fourth in last season’s Serie A, but won their first European trophy in their history — and first of any description for 61 years — by beating the hitherto unbeatable Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in the Europa League final. The only team to beat them at home in that run was another English team: Liverpool.

Monaco’s visit to Emirates Stadium offers a quick return to his former club for Folarin Balogun. The USMNT forward left Arsenal in a £35m deal in August 2023 despite scoring 22 goals on loan at Reims in the previous season. The Gunners felt they were better off without him; Balogun, 23, will now get a chance to prove that may have been a mistake.

Chances of advancing: Arsenal will expect to progress comfortably, but they must improve their record on the road, having won just one of their five away games in last season’s Champions League. — James Olley

BAYERN MUNICH

Home opponents: PSG, Benfica, GNK Dinamo, Slovan Bratislava
Away opponents: Barcelona, Shakhtar Donetsk, Feyenoord, Aston Villa

Analysis: Overall, Bayern Munich would have surely taken this. While there’s no emotional homecoming for Vincent Kompany with Bayern dodging Manchester City, their toughest match will be a trip to Barcelona but apart from that, they’ll fancy their chances of winning the rest. PSG and Benfica will offer stern asks at the Allianz Arena, though GNK Dinamo and Slovan Bratislava should be straightforward. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing their home matches in Gelsenkirchen this year, meaning a short trip to the north-west of Germany for Bayern, while they will head to Feyenoord and Aston Villa confident of picking up victories.

PSG and Bayern have enjoyed several battles over the years, with Bayern knocking them out of the tournament at the Round of 16 stage in 2023, while there will also be echoes of Bayern’s demolition of Barcelona back in the 2020 quarterfinals when it was Hansi Flick who masterminded their 8-2 victory. Now Flick’s in charge of the Catalans and he’ll be managing a team still featuring a couple of players like Marc-André ter Stegen and Frenkie de Jong who will have recurring nightmares of that evening.

Overall, Bayern will have their sights set on the latter stages of the tournament, while for Harry Kane, it’ll offer a chance for him to end his career-long wait for a domestic trophy. They’ll have the likes of Michael Olise and João Palhinha helping them in that quest, while it remains to be seen what happens to Kingsley Coman in the remaining days of the transfer window.

Chances of advancing: Bayern should make the top-eight and reach the last-16 for the 17th year in a row. — Tom Hamilton

BARCELONA

Home opponents: Bayern Munich, Atalanta, Young Boys, Brest
Away opponents: Borussia Dortmund, Benfica, Crvena Zvezda, Monaco

Analysis: Barcelona’s toughest opponent is Bayern, so they will be happy it’s a home fixture at the Olympic Stadium. Bayern have been Barça’s bête noire in recent years and the game will bring back memories of the German side’s 8-2 win in 2020, when current Barça coach Flick sat in the opposite dugout. That said, Barça may rather have drawn Bayern than a Man City or a PSG because there remains an air of uncertainty around them under new coach Vincent Kompany.

Dortmund away will be awkward, too, but again it’s arguably better than a trip to City, PSG or even Liverpool. Overall, though, you imagine Barça will be happy with their selection of fixtures as they look to build on last season’s quarterfinal appearance.

Most importantly, it’s an opportunity for Flick’s young, but talented, team to prove themselves against the continent’s top sides. Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Ferran Torres, Fermín López and new signing Dani Olmo were all part of Spain‘s victorious squad at the European Championships and will take that experience into this season. Pau Cubarsí won Olympic gold, Alejandro Balde is back from injury and Gavi will return in the coming months, with MarcTer Stegen, Jules Koundé, De Jong, Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski all adding experience.

Chances of advancing: Barça will advance, but the question is whether they finish in the top eight, progressing straight to the last 16, or if they will finish lower and have to play a knockout game first. Even being pessimistic, I still reckon they get 16-18 points, which will have them hovering around the top eight. — Sam Marsden

REAL MADRID

Home opponents: Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan, FC Salzburg, Stuttgart
Away opponents: Liverpool, Atalanta, Lille, Brest

Analysis: Real Madrid’s draw for the league phase is a tough one, but it contains exactly the kind of big, glamorous European names — Liverpool, AC Milan, Borussia Dortmund — that Madrid want to be facing on a regular basis. Seven of their eight opponents are from Europe’s “Big Five” leagues — two German teams, two Italians, two French and one English — with the exception being Austria‘s Salzburg. That means Mbappé will be heading back to France twice, to play Lille (and his brother) and Brest.

There are some familiar opponents. Madrid beat Dortmund in last season’s Champions League final, while they bested Atalanta in this month’s UEFA Super Cup, and beat Liverpool to win the tournament in 2018 and 2022. The away trip to Liverpool looks like Madrid’s biggest test, but it’s one they’ll relish, given Anfield’s mythic status in Spain.

Chances of advancing: This is Real Madrid, in the Champions League. Of course they’ll advance. Madrid tend to rise to the challenge against the biggest names in Europe, but it’ll be worth watching how they get on against lesser-known sides like Stuttgart and Brest, when they might not have the same level of motivation. Madrid’s record in the old group stage was impeccable — they were never eliminated, always reaching the knockout stage in that format — and anything other than a serene passage here would be a major surprise. — Alex Kirkland

PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

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Home opponents: Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, PSV, Girona
Away opponents: Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Salzburg, Stuttgart

Analysis: This is both a tough group for PSG, and a largely unknown one. Tough because they have been drawn with two of the three top teams from Pot 1, Bayern Munich and Manchester City, while also paired with the two best teams of Pot 2 in Arsenal and Atletico Madrid! Their trips to Munich and London will be very interesting while the Parc des Princes will be on fire for the reception of Manchester City, who won in Paris in the semifinal, first leg, in 2021 and also lost there when Leo Messi scored, and Atletico Madrid, who have never faced the Parisians.

Like Atletico, facing Girona, RB Salzburg and Stuttgart will be all new for the French champions. They have never played against them. Going back to Spain to face Atletico and Girona might not be a bad thing, as PSG did well crossing the Pyrenees last season when they defeated Real Sociedad and Barcelona last season.

For this young squad without superstars and without Mbappé for the first time in eight years, this will be a great journey to grow and to improve collectively and individually. But the objective is to reach at least the last eight.

Chances of advancing: PSG will advance, but it might be tough to finish in the top eight. The order of their matches will be important, especially the timing of when they play the other best four teams of their schedule. I think they can reach 15 to 16 points, which could be enough to finish in the top eight. — Julien Laurens

ATLETICO MADRID

Home opponents: RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen, Lille, Slovan Bratislava
Away opponents: PSG, Benfica, FC Salzburg, Sparta Prague

Analysis: Atleti have strengthened their squad this summer, with the additions of Julián Álvarez from Manchester City, Chelsea‘s Conor Gallagher and Barcelona’s Clément Lenglet among others, so they will expect to go deep into this season Champions League.

They face a tough run of fixtures away from home, with PSG, Benfica and FC Salzburg all strong on home turf. Sparta Prague’s qualifying round win against Malmo in the Czech capital highlighted the atmosphere at the Epet Arena, and they can absolutely pose a threat to Diego Simeone’s side. It’s not an easy path at home for Atleti, either. Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig will be tough to beat, making it crucial that Simeone’s team beat Lille and Slovan Bratislava while avoiding defeat in their other two games in Madrid.

But while this looks a challenging draw for Atleti, nobody should underestimate the durability and character of a team that has continually punched above its weight in the Champions League under Simeone. They have the experience and ability to go to Paris and Lisbon and win their toughest away games, so Atleti will be a live contender all the way through this stage. To make it into the Round of 16 without needing a play-off, Atleti must finish in the top eight and that looks to be a tall order because of the way the draw has played out for them.

Chances of advancing: Good, but they will likely have to go through the Play-Off stage before making it to the Round of 16. — Ogden

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Home opponents: Barcelona, Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic, Sturm Graz
Away opponents: Real Madrid, Club Brugge, Dinamo Zagreb, Bologna

Analysis: When Borussia Dortmund’s manager Nuri Sahin was asked on Thursday which teams he wanted to face in the Champions League, he picked out two of his former sides: Liverpool and Real Madrid. His wishes were answered, as Cristiano Ronaldo and his magic button offered BVB a trip to Real. That’ll see Jude Bellingham lining up against his former club once again in what will be a repeat of last year’s Champions League final.

Apart from that tricky trip to Madrid, Dortmund will take the draw they’ve been handed. Barcelona at home will be tough, where they’ll need the power of the yellow wall behind them, but they will expect to beat Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic and Sturm Graz at Signal Iduna Park. On the road, they’ll have a short trip to Club Brugge, plus coin-toss matches in Zagreb and Bologna.

Borussia Dortmund are a team in transition under Sahin, with a slew of summer signings and a group trying to find a way to be more dominant in matches. Regardless of which stage they are at in their evolution, this is very manageable set of fixtures for a side that’s added Pascal Groß, Waldemar Anton, Maximilian Beier, Yan Couto and Serhou Guirassy in the offseason.

Chances of advancing: Borussia Dortmund should make the top eight and progress comfortably to the knockout stages. — Hamilton

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Home opponents: Inter Milan, AC Milan, FC Salzburg, Sparta Praha
Away opponents: Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Feyenoord, Brest

Analysis: This is a tricky set of fixtures for Xabi Alonso’s team, and attention is immediately drawn to their trip to Anfield. Xabi Alonso enjoyed five years at Liverpool and was linked to the job at the end of last season after Jurgen Klopp stepped down. But Alonso felt like he had unfinished business at Leverkusen — much to their delight — and having conquered Germany, they look to go one better in the Champions League than the class of 2002, who reached the final only to run into a Zinedine Zidane-inspired Real Madrid.

They are still on their remarkable unbeaten run on the domestic front, but it was their 3-0 defeat to Atalanta in the final of the Europa League last term that prevented them from completing an incredible undefeated season — and a treble. It won’t be lost on them that they have drawn both Milan giants in Inter and AC. That said, both will be welcomed to the BayArena while FC Salzburg — under Klopp’s former assistant, Pep Lijnders — and Sparta Praha will also make the trip to North Rhine-Westphalia. They also have the unenviable task of travelling to Atletico Madrid — a team that knocked them out of the Champions League in both 2017 and 2015 — while Feyenoord and Brest also await them on the road.

It remains to be seen if Leverkusen can hold on to their star centre back Jonathan Tah, who has been constantly linked with a move away from the club in the summer with both Bayern Munich and Barcelona linked. The chief concern regarding their progress might be how they manage a bruising season. Battling on both the Champions League front and in the Bundesliga will test the depth and durability of Alonso’s squad.

Chances of advancing: Bayer Leverkusen should reach the knockouts, and expect plenty of late goals in the process. — Hamilton

ASTON VILLA

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Do Aston Villa have the easiest Champions League schedule?

Gab Marcotti, Mark Ogden and Ryan O’Hanlon discuss Aston Villa’s draw upon their return to elite European football.

Home opponents: Bayern Munich, Juventus, Bologna, Celtic
Away opponents: Young Boys, Brugge, Leipzig, Monaco

Analysis: If you have been away from Europe’s biggest competition for over 40 years, you really want to make up for lost time and Villa have certainly done that with their draw. Unai Emery and his players — not to mention the Villa fans — have hit the jackpot.

Villa fans who remember the club’s 1982 European Cup win against Bayern Munich will be able to take a trip down Memory Lane when they face the Bundesliga giants at Villa Park, while the visit of another European heavyweight in Juventus, who dethroned Villa as European champions in 1983, is another big fixture for the club. And just to add to the sense of Villa returning to the big time with a bang, a home game against Scottish champions Celtic will ensure an-all British clash at Villa Park.

While Villa will relish Champions League nights again, the reality is that they will face an uphill task to reach the Round of 16 stage. Bayern and Juventus will be tough obstacles to overcome and every away game will be a challenge, but with only eight teams dropping out of the competition, Villa might just be able to scrape into the play-off stage. It won’t be easy.

Chances of advancing: Slim. They got a tough draw with plenty of big nights at Villa Park, but more glamour means a much harder route. — Ogden