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Don’t count Paul Skenes out in the National League Rookie of the Year race yet.
The Pittsburgh Pirates‘ right-hander pitched six scoreless innings in a 7–0 win over the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday. Skenes struck out nine and allowed two hits, throwing 87 pitches. That lowered his ERA to 2.16, which would lead MLB but he hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for consideration.
Amid perhaps outsized expectations, the Pirates’ right-hander has been less than dominant since the All-Star break. In five starts, Skenes has compiled a 3.13 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings, in addition to 11 walks, 23 hits, and 12 runs (11 earned). Still impressive, but compared to his 6–0 record, 1.90 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings, the numbers aren’t as flashy.
That’s allowed San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill to overtake Skenes as the favorite for top NL rookie honors, in the view of many. Merrill, the Padres’ 2021 first-round draft pick, has a .291 batting average and .813 OPS, 21 doubles, 18 home runs, 71 RBI and 13 stolen bases, making a strong case.
With 131 1/3 innings between the major and minor leagues this season, Skenes has surpassed the 122 2/3 he pitched last year for LSU. That has raised concerns about his workload and whether or not the Pirates will soon shut him down for the season.
Manager Derek Shelton told reporters before Thursday’s game that there are no immediate plans to shut down his ace. However, his innings and pitches thrown per game will be closely monitored. That is likely why Skenes was pulled after throwing 87 pitches against the Reds.
The most likely approach will be to maintain giving Skenes longer rest between starts, extending him to five days, maybe even six.
“He will not pitch on regular rest the rest of the year. I can almost assure you of that,” said Shelton, via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Andrew Destin. “I don’t say things in a definite very much, but I can say it’s 95% he will not throw on a regular four-day rest.”
Why not just shut Skenes down then? Shelton and the Pirates feel it’s important for the rookie to pitch through a full major league season, something he’ll be expected to do regularly.
“You have to learn how to get through a Major League season,” Shelton said, via MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf. “It’s really important and most guys are able to do it. You look at a majority, if not 95% of Major League players, not just Major League pitchers who are doing it, they have at least one season in the minor leagues, if not two seasons.
“What he’s doing is something that’s very different, it’s very special. It’s something where we also have to be very mindful of. He’s learning how to pitch on Aug. 22. He’s gonna learn how to pitch in September, all those things.”
If the Pirates give Skenes five or six days rest, his next start should be Tuesday or Wednesday versus the Chicago Cubs. Or if Shelton wanted to give the rookie extra rest, he could wait until after Pittsburgh‘s off-day next Thursday and start him on Friday against the Cleveland Guardians.