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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
This is what the 12-team College Football Playoff is all about. Inclusion. Interest. A field so deep you need waders.
From Arizona to Auburn and Utah to UTSA, get ready for a postseason that opens the door to historic possibilities.
Of course, there will be the familiar faces, as the SEC and Big Ten have combined to win eight of the first 10 playoff titles, and that trend is expected to continue. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, 12 of the top 15 teams are from those two leagues. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the SEC a 53% chance to win the national title and the Big Ten a 32% chance.
They’re in good company, though.
There are 30 teams — 30 teams! — with at least a 10% chance to make the CFP this year, according to ESPN Analytics. Below you’ll find those 30 teams ranked in order of their percentage chance to make the playoff. You’ll also find their percentage chance to win the national title according to ESPN Analytics.
The CFP selection committee comprises 13 humans, though, who don’t always agree with the computers.
So how will they view these contenders? You’ll find that below, too.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 79.1% | Win national title: 21%
2023 record: 13-1
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +325
CFP ranking history: 48 appearances, highest at No. 1 (15 times)
Dinich’s take: Even with a plethora of NFL talent gone, this team is again going to be loaded. It starts offensively with the return of quarterback Carson Beck and his coordinator, Mike Bobo. They should have one of the best offensive lines in the country to work with. Defensively, Georgia has depth at linebacker and a star in Mykel Williams, and safety Malaki Starks is one of the best in the country. With such a grueling schedule, it’s probably unrealistic to think Georgia is going to go undefeated, but it doesn’t have to. It just has to win the SEC, making it a lock for a first-round bye. Georgia is good enough to do that.
Toughest test: Oct. 19 at Texas. Georgia and Texas are the only teams in the country projected to rank in the top five in both offense and defense. This is now an SEC game, which impacts the race to the conference championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, no game will have a bigger impact on the SEC race than this one, and it’s also ranked the top matchup overall this season. This game will ultimately impact how the teams are seeded in the 12-team field. Any team that doesn’t win its league has to win four straight games to earn the national title, and the SEC champ would only have to win three.
What the committee will like: Tough road wins. Georgia plays only one true home game in the first five weeks (includes a neutral-site game against Clemson and an open date). The Bulldogs also don’t play in Athens from Weeks 8-11 (includes two road games, a second neutral-site game against Florida and another open date). Last season, when Texas went into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama by double digits in Week 2, it resonated with the committee through Selection Day in part because of where it happened — on the Tide’s home turf. The respect for road wins won’t change in the 12-team format, and Georgia could have plenty of them — none tougher than Oct. 19 in Austin.
What the committee won’t like: This is like trying to find a streak on a window that was just cleaned. You can move around and look at it from different angles, but you’re really just being picky. As long as Georgia doesn’t face-plant and go 0-2 against the ACC, it will be difficult for the committee to find flaws. If Georgia doesn’t play in the SEC championship game — and right now it has a league-best 33% chance to win the conference — only then will the rest of its schedule go under the microscope.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 76% | Win national title: 12.8%
2023 record: 12-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +900
CFP ranking history: 38 appearances, highest at No. 2 (five times)
Dinich’s take: Oregon will make the playoff — either as the Big Ten champ or through an at-large spot — but until proven otherwise, the Ducks should be ranked below both Texas and Ohio State (if they don’t beat the Buckeyes). Oregon is ready to compete in the playoff under third-year coach Dan Lanning, and there should be a smooth transition at quarterback, where Dillon Gabriel will take over for Bo Nix. But this will arguably be the most difficult schedule the Ducks have faced under Lanning, with a tricky combination of past Pac-12 rivals and new Big Ten foes.
Toughest test: Oct. 12 vs. Ohio State. The home game against the Buckeyes will reveal how seriously to take Oregon as a national title contender — and as a Big Ten contender. There’s a strong possibility they’re both preseason top-five teams. Because there are no divisions in the new Big Ten, the top two teams will face each other in the conference title game. It’s possible they meet again there, but they both will also still face Michigan, giving the loser of this matchup less margin for error.
What the committee will like: Big Ten road wins against ranked opponents. November is when Oregon will truly feel like it’s in the Big Ten — when it goes to Ann Arbor and Camp Randall Stadium at Wisconsin. With home games against Maryland and Washington, November is the month that should define the Ducks’ place in the playoff.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 7 home loss to Boise State. That could complicate things inside the committee meeting room if Boise State wins the Mountain West Conference and is the panel’s highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5 conferences. It’s a very plausible scenario, as ESPN Analytics projects Boise State to have the best chance to represent the Group of 5 in the CFP (17%). So … does head-to-head matter? It depends on which committee member you ask. If Boise State and Oregon finish the regular season with identical one-loss records and conference titles, will the committee rank the Broncos ahead of the Ducks even though Oregon played a tougher schedule? What if Boise State goes undefeated? Right now, ESPN’s FPI projects Oregon will win every game and Boise State will lose one — to the Ducks. It only takes one upset, though, to upend the committee’s thinking.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 67.8% | Win national title: 11.4%
2023 record: 12-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +750
CFP ranking history: 22 appearances, highest at No. 3
Dinich’s take: Texas will make the CFP for a second straight season — this time as a member of the SEC — but the Longhorns should be a notch above Oregon heading into the season. Texas is No. 26 in the FBS in returning offensive production (73%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Longhorns might have the best quarterback room in the country with starter Quinn Ewers returning and Arch Manning waiting for his turn. They’ll also have a veteran offensive line paving the way, and the coaching staff made good use of the transfer portal this past offseason.
Toughest test: Oct. 19 vs. Georgia. The Longhorns will have home-field advantage and they’re going to need it. ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game except this one. It’s basically a coin flip, though, as Georgia has a 52.5% chance to win. This is also the second straight week of high emotions and competition, as Texas faces rival Oklahoma on Oct. 12. The Longhorns will have already traveled to Michigan in Week 2. If Texas loses to either OU or Michigan, the home game against Georgia becomes even more critical to the Longhorns’ postseason hopes.
What the committee will like: Another win against a ranked CFP contender. Texas experienced how valuable a head-to-head win can be in the committee meeting room last year after it beat SEC champion Alabama in Tuscaloosa. If Texas can do the same against Georgia — and the Bulldogs still win the SEC — it will again be difficult for the committee to dismiss the game result if the records are identical. That could also come into play with a win at Michigan or against the Sooners, but to have multiple wins against teams in the committee’s top 12 will influence its ranking through Selection Day.
What the committee won’t like: Another subpar pass defense. It’s not going to keep Texas out of the CFP — it didn’t last season — but it could keep the Longhorns from winning it. Last season, Texas ranked 113th in the FBS against the pass, allowing 254.4 yards per game. In the CFP semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl, Washington threw for 430 yards against Texas. OU racked up over 280 yards in its regular-season win against the Longhorns. Those are the kinds of glaring weaknesses that get pointed out in the committee meeting room — especially when similar teams are being compared.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 67.2% | Win national title: 10.5%
2023 record: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +350
CFP ranking history: 60 appearances, highest at No. 1 (five times)
Dinich’s take: This team will make the CFP and should be favored to win the Big Ten, but it should also be No. 2 this preseason behind Georgia. The question isn’t whether the Buckeyes will get in — it’s how deep a run they can make. Ohio State is oozing talent on both sides of the ball, and last season’s defense made huge strides, ranking in the top three in both scoring and total defense. Coach Ryan Day has assembled a veteran staff with strong familiarity, including the hire of former UCLA coach Chip Kelly to call the plays on offense. K-State transfer Will Howard is the most experienced option at quarterback, having become the Wildcats’ all-time leader in touchdown passes (48). In addition to Howard, the offense will get a boost from Ole Miss transfer running back Quinshon Judkins.
Toughest test: Oct. 12 at Oregon. Yes, there is no game bigger than The Game, but having to travel to Autzen Stadium and beat a better team than Michigan will be harder than avoiding a home loss to the Wolverines. The game at Oregon will likely be Ohio State’s first of the season against a ranked opponent and will impact the Big Ten standings. The two teams could meet again in the conference title game, opening the possibility that the October winner could have a head-to-head win against the eventual Big Ten champion, which would bode well for both of them and the Big Ten.
What the committee will like: A convincing home win against rival Michigan. (Well, not everyone on the committee will love that. Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel is the chair of the group this fall and will recuse himself during any discussions and voting about the Wolverines.) One of the factors the committee considers, though, is results of common opponents, and both Oregon and Texas play at Michigan this fall. The committee will acknowledge the differences between home and away games but will still compare how the contenders fared against the Wolverines. Ohio State hasn’t lost four straight in the rivalry since 1988-91. Depending on how Ohio State fares against Oregon and Penn State, this game could mean far more than bragging rights. Again.
What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. Three straight home games against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall won’t help Ohio State if it’s in a close debate with another team that played a stronger nonconference lineup, such as Texas (vs. Michigan) or Georgia (vs. Clemson). This will only be a factor, though, if Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten, because in the new 12-team field, the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the CFP. This would be a part of the discussion involving at-large teams on Selection Day, but it could also hold Ohio State back in the early rankings if the Buckeyes lose to Oregon. If that happens, the pressure will be on Ohio State to win at Penn State on Nov. 2 — likely the only other ranked opponent it will face before the first CFP ranking.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 59.1% | Win national title: 6.6%
2023 record: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +2500
CFP ranking history: 36 appearances, highest at No. 4
Dinich’s take: Penn State has a great chance to make the playoff — especially as an at-large team — but No. 5 is too high for the Nittany Lions at this point. PSU might be the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State, Oregon and perhaps defending national champion Michigan. The Nittany Lions’ running game wasn’t as explosive last season and fell below expectations, while the passing game was underwhelming. Once again, coach James Franklin has new offensive and defensive coordinators. The good news for PSU is that it doesn’t have to beat Ohio State to reach the Big Ten championship game, since the league eliminated its divisions. The bad news is it might have to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game — if the Nittany Lions can get there. Penn State has a season-defining stretch against USC, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington.
Toughest test: Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are just 1-7 when hosting the Buckeyes since 2007, their worst home record against any team during that span (with more than twice as many home losses than against any other team).
What the committee will like: Road wins against West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin. Ranked or not, none of those teams makes for an easy trip, and everyone in that committee meeting room knows it. If PSU can go 3-0 against those teams, that can help compensate for a home loss to Ohio State and possibly earn the Nittany Lions a spot in the field without a Big Ten title. It might even give them wiggle room in November, but a lot of that depends on whether USC and Wisconsin are ranked, and assumes West Virginia has another respectable season. PSU needs to find a signature win somewhere on its schedule.
What the committee won’t like: A September stumble. Penn State plays just one road game in the first six weeks of the season (it has an open date Sept. 14). The Nittany Lions are unlikely to face a ranked opponent the entire month, with games against West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State and Illinois. If WVU can pull off a home upset in the season opener, Penn State might need a 14-team CFP sooner than later.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 59.1% | Win national title: 4.8%
2023 record: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +2200
CFP ranking history: 49 appearances, highest at No. 2 (four times)
Dinich’s take: Notre Dame has the potential for a special season in Year 3 under coach Marcus Freeman, and ESPN’s FPI projects the Irish to win all their games. According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame is tied with Oregon for the best chance (16%) to enter the playoff undefeated. Freeman lured former Notre Dame playcaller Mike Denbrock away from LSU, where he led the nation’s top scoring offense last season. The staff also brought in former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard, and the defensive line should be one of the strengths of the team. Notre Dame will no longer feel the pressure of needing an undefeated season to lock in a playoff spot. The independent Irish can’t earn a first-round bye — those spots are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions — but Notre Dame has ample opportunities to impress the committee and earn an at-large bid.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 at Texas A&M. ESPN’s FPI gives Notre Dame a 58.8% chance to beat the Aggies on their home turf, and that’s the type of win that could set the tone for the season.
What the committee will like: A win over the ACC champs. Notre Dame hosts Florida State on Nov. 9, and the Seminoles are in position to repeat as ACC champions. Because Notre Dame doesn’t belong to a conference, a regular-season win against the eventual ACC champion would be the next-best thing to impress the committee. Last year, one of the reasons the Texas win at Alabama continued to resonate through Selection Day was that Alabama eventually won the SEC. The committee would likely view a Notre Dame win over FSU in similar regard — and if Florida State does win the ACC, the Irish would have a head-to-head win against a team that would be guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Because of the new format, though, Notre Dame could be ranked ahead of FSU, but not seeded ahead of the Noles because the four highest-ranked conference champions earn the top four seeds and first-round byes.
What the committee won’t like: Another puzzling loss. In each of the past two seasons, Notre Dame has lost at least one game it shouldn’t have. In Freeman’s first season, it was the Week 2 home loss to Marshall. Last year, the Irish squandered an early lead to Louisville, a game they thought they should have won. Notre Dame has more wiggle room in the 12-team format, but the committee will still be looking for the Irish to beat its unranked opponents and earn a few signature wins. It’s one thing to lose on the road to rival USC, and another to stumble at home to Louisville (No. 28 in SP+ rankings).
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 57.2% | Win national title: 8.5%
2023 record: 12-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +1600
CFP ranking history: 60 appearances, highest at No. 1 (24 times)
Dinich’s take: Although legendary coach Nick Saban has retired, enough talent remains in the program for coach Kalen DeBoer to lead the Tide to the CFP. Though he’s new to Tuscaloosa, DeBoer has grown accustomed to winning at every stop, compiling a 104-12 record in his past three jobs. It’s going to be difficult to return to the SEC championship game, but Alabama can still earn a spot in the 12-team field even if it is the third-best team in the league behind Georgia and Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide at least a 51% chance to win every game — except…
Toughest test: Sept. 28 vs. Georgia. Alabama was 8-2 against the Bulldogs under Saban, and Georgia hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2007, Saban’s first season. Don’t count DeBoer out vs. Kirby Smart. DeBoer is 12-2 against AP-ranked opponents in his career.
What the committee will like: A November to remember. This is where DeBoer will get the full indoctrination into Alabama and SEC culture, with November conference road games against LSU and Oklahoma, and hosting the Iron Bowl against Auburn. If Alabama can go 3-0 against those teams, it should be a lock for the CFP — even with a home loss to Georgia and no SEC title. In that scenario, the Tide could finish with two losses (to Georgia in the regular season, and again in the SEC championship game). Alabama could also earn an at-large bid with two regular-season losses and no SEC title game appearance — but the committee would be more forgiving if it’s a road loss to a ranked opponent than, say, a home stumble against South Carolina.
What the committee won’t like: Another head-to-head loss against a CFP contender — without an SEC title to compensate for it. This won’t necessarily eliminate the Tide (see the above scenario), but it could put them in a precarious position if the at-large spot the committee is considering boils down to Bama or the SEC team it lost to. Last year was the most difficult final ranking the selection committee ever compiled, and Alabama complicated things when it beat No. 1-ranked Georgia to win the SEC. The SEC title helped Bama finish in the top four with Texas. If the Tide were to lose at Tennessee, LSU or Oklahoma, that result could mean the difference in both the final ranking and seeding on Selection Day. If the teams have identical records, the committee will likely honor the head-to-head result.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 37.3% | Win national title: 2.2%
2023 record: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +3500
CFP ranking history: 13 appearances, highest at No. 9 (four times)
Dinich’s take: Mizzou can absolutely make the playoff, but that’s based more on a forgiving schedule than proof it can contend for the national title. The Tigers shouldn’t be ranked ahead of No. 18 Ole Miss, let alone by 10 spots. Mizzou might be the fifth-best team in the SEC, behind Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama. Will five SEC teams get in? Maybe, but questions about schedule strength will emerge in the committee meeting room — especially if Mizzou loses to Alabama and Oklahoma. Still, the schedule is manageable enough that Mizzou should enter October undefeated and a 10-2 finish or better isn’t an unreasonable expectation. The Tigers return one of the top quarterback-wide receiver combos in the country with Brady Cook and Luther Burden III. Missouri also doesn’t have to worry about losing a head-to-head debate to Texas, Ole Miss or Georgia.
Toughest test: Oct. 26 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives Alabama a 70% chance to win — the only game where it doesn’t give Mizzou more than a 50% shot. This will be Missouri’s last game before the selection committee releases its first ranking of the season. It will be the biggest clue available as to how seriously to take the Tigers in the CFP race, though plenty will also be revealed Oct. 5 at Texas A&M.
What the committee will like: Style points. The committee doesn’t want teams to run up the score in unsportsmanlike fashion, but it does want them to prove they’re the better team against unranked competition. And September will be full of that for Mizzou. Missouri doesn’t play a road game until Oct. 5 at Texas A&M, and none of the Tigers’ September opponents is ranked higher than No. 58 in ESPN’s preseason FPI. FCS Murray State was 2-9 last season. FPI gives Missouri at least an 87% chance to beat each September opponent. Mizzou also travels to UMass on Oct. 12. Typically, when schedule strength has been an issue, the committee has used consistently dominant performances even against lesser competition as justification for a high ranking.
What the committee won’t like: No statement wins. With four straight September home games and none against Georgia, Texas or Ole Miss, this isn’t exactly the most daunting schedule. The best opportunities for Mizzou to impress the committee will be Oct. 26 at Alabama and two weeks later against Oklahoma. There is a bye week to prepare for the Sooners.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 36.9% | Win national title: 2.7%
2023 record: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +3500
CFP ranking history: 18 appearances, highest at No. 1
Dinich’s take: Tennessee should be better than it was last year on both offense and defense, but it still might be a three-loss team on the bubble because the schedule is so challenging. There are high expectations for quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be surrounded by talent and an offensive line that returns three starters. The defensive line should be the strength on that side, but the secondary struggled last year and will be rebuilt this season. Can the Vols win at OU, at home against Bama and at Georgia? ESPN’s FPI says they’re 0-3 against that lineup.
Toughest test: Nov. 16 at Georgia. By this point in the season, Iamaleava won’t be a rookie anymore, but will the Vols’ pass defense be ready for Carson Beck? Last season Beck threw for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-10 win.
What the committee will like: Road/neutral site wins. If the Vols are going to impress the panel, they’re going to have to do it on the road, where they will face some of their toughest competition. Tennessee could earn a nonconference win against a ranked ACC opponent Sept. 7 if it can beat NC State in the Duke’s Mayo Classic in Charlotte, North Carolina. If it doesn’t win that game, though, two of its best chances to compensate for it are Sept. 21 at Oklahoma and Nov. 16 at Georgia.
What the committee won’t like: An inexplicable loss in addition to forgivable ones. In 2022, South Carolina shocked Tennessee in November with a 63-38 win, essentially eliminating the Vols from the CFP. Last year, another loss at rival Florida marred what should have been an undefeated start. The problem in each of those two seasons was that those upsets compounded other, more respectable losses. The selection committee will still consider Tennessee this year if it has one or two losses to ranked opponents — especially on the road — but bad defeats have historically been difficult for teams to overcome. If the Vols are going to reach even an expanded field, they’ve got to win the games they’re supposed to.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 36.6% | Win national title: 2.8%
2023 record: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: 52 appearances, highest at No. 2
Dinich’s take: Oklahoma should be better in Brent Venables’ third season — particularly on defense, which is his forte — but the schedule is so tough that the improvement might not be reflected in the Sooners’ record. With road trips to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU, it’s reasonable to think OU will have multiple losses. There are also questions surrounding the offense, which is replacing all five starters on the line and will promote quarterback Jackson Arnold, whose experience is limited to mop-up duty.
Toughest test: Oct. 12 vs. Texas. The stakes are now higher, as this SEC game will impact standings, rankings and possibly CFP seeding on Selection Day. Last year, the Sooners won during the regular season, but Texas went on to capture the Big 12. The same thing could happen in the SEC. The difference is that the head-to-head win could be significant in the selection committee meeting room if OU is in contention for an at-large spot. A regular-season win over the SEC champs could help the committee forgive another regular-season loss.
What the committee will like: A winning record in November. OU plays two of its final three games on the road: Nov. 9 at Missouri and Nov. 30 at LSU. Sandwiched between those is a home game against Alabama. (The Sooners open the month at home against Maine.) If Oklahoma is still in contention for one of the 12 spots by November, the committee will need to see it finish no worse than 3-1 during that month — unless by some miracle OU enters November undefeated. Then it obviously would have some wiggle room to lose one or two of those final three games. If Oklahoma loses one or two games before that, though, the committee will be looking for a strong finish in the Sooners’ season-defining stretch against what should be three straight ranked opponents.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 14 home loss to Tulane. This is the kind of upset that could be devastating in the 12-team field. If Tulane wins the American Athletic Conference and finishes as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, it could bump out the No. 12-ranked team for a spot in the CFP. (ESPN’s FPI gives Tulane the second-best chance — 17.7% — to win the AAC behind UTSA’s 31.3%.) If OU is hovering around that 12th spot, and has lost the head-to-head to Tulane, it could cost the Sooners their place in the CFP. Last year, Oklahoma was the committee’s No. 12 team, but No. 23 Liberty — the C-USA champ — would have knocked the Sooners out.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 35.9% | Win national title: 2.5%
2023 record: 13-1
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +3000
CFP ranking history: 30 appearances, highest at No. 2 (two times)
Dinich’s take: As the preseason favorite to win the ACC again, FSU should have an even higher chance to make the CFP. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff, so FSU’s unprecedented exclusion last year as an undefeated power conference champion won’t happen again. The Seminoles will be one of the ACC’s toughest teams upfront, and they answered the committee’s top question last year — the quarterback position — with the addition of transfer DJ Uiagalelei.
Toughest test: Nov. 9 at Notre Dame. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 70.5% chance to win at home. This is part of a rigorous schedule that is ranked No. 31 in the country, and while a loss won’t knock the Seminoles out, a win could be a huge assist in earning an at-large bid if they need it.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record vs. Notre Dame and Florida. Even when Florida was unranked last year, the committee valued FSU’s win against its rival enough to keep the Noles in the top four — without their starting quarterback. It was a move that gave FSU false CFP hope heading into the ACC championship game against Louisville, but also proof of how highly the committee regards wins against SEC teams — even mediocre ones. FSU doesn’t play NC State, so beyond Clemson, it needs to hope that the committee ranks some of its other ACC opponents, such as Duke, Miami and/or UNC. If not, wins against the Irish and Gators should suffice.
What the committee won’t like: The shocking scenario of excluding Florida State again. The absolute worst nightmare for the committee — as if it could get any worse than last season — would be for FSU to lose at home to Memphis on Sept. 14 and have the Tigers be their fifth-highest-ranked conference champion — and bump out No. 12 Florida State. In that very particular scenario, FSU would not win the ACC, having dropped another game along the way.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 28.5% | Win national title: 1.7%
2023 record: 15-0
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +2500
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 1
Dinich’s take: Michigan is hovering around the bubble, and it would be a significant drop-off for the program to win a national title and then not qualify for a 12-team playoff field. This isn’t last year’s team, though. Nor does it have its CFP-winning head coach, Jim Harbaugh. Michigan ranks No. 126 in the FBS in returning production (40%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Michigan is still going to be extremely competitive in the Big Ten, but the likely scenario is that it will have to jockey for one of the at-large spots. That could be tricky if the Wolverines go 0-3 against Texas, Oregon and Ohio State — and that’s exactly what ESPN’s FPI projects.
Toughest test: Nov. 30 at Ohio State. As good as Oregon and Texas will be this year, nothing will compare to the challenge of beating the Buckeyes on their home turf — especially when Ohio State is so desperate to avoid a fourth straight loss to Michigan. ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.2% chance to win.
What the committee will like: This schedule. Finally. After back-to-back seasons with mostly ho-hum lineups, Michigan has a schedule tailor-made to impress the committee. With a Week 2 home game against Texas, and opponents USC, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State, Michigan has more margin for error. With the exception of USC, each of those opponents finished inside the top 10 of the final AP poll last year. Having to travel to Washington for a conference game, plus a road trip to rival Ohio State to end the season, will help compensate for having only four road games.
What the committee won’t like: No November statement wins. Two of Michigan’s top opportunities to impress the selection committee are in November, against Oregon and Ohio State. If the Wolverines don’t win at least one of those games, their season will end with a thud, as the committee won’t view wins against Indiana and Northwestern as cause for promotion in the ranking.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 26.9% | Win national title: 1.4%
2023 record: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 54 appearances, highest at No. 1 (eight times)
Dinich’s take: With a strong chance to finish 10-2, Clemson should be right on the CFP bubble — if it doesn’t unravel like last year. The Tigers have a manageable schedule, with just enough quality opponents to outweigh the likes of Appalachian State and The Citadel. Clemson faces NC State, Florida State and Louisville — all teams that could be in the CFP top 25. There are also higher expectations for Virginia Tech this fall, and a Nov. 9 win in Blacksburg could be more meaningful in the committee meeting room than it might look now.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 vs. Georgia. This isn’t going to make or break Clemson’s CFP hopes, but it will reveal early how close the Tigers are to getting back to national relevance under coach Dabo Swinney. The season opener is always unique because teams have the entire summer to prepare for their opponent. How the game unfolds — and whether it’s close or lopsided — could be part of the committee’s conversation all season if the Tigers are a contender. A Clemson win changes the conversation entirely. If Clemson is going to contend for the CFP, though, its offense under coordinator Garrett Riley and quarterback Cade Klubnik will have to show progress, starting in the opener.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record vs. the SEC. Wins against Georgia and South Carolina would wow the committee, if the Gamecocks have a respectable season. Every year the committee considers the emotions and increased unpredictability of rivalry games. If Clemson can bookend the season with victories in those two games, it won’t have to win the ACC to earn a spot in the CFP as long as it avoids multiple upsets in between.
What the committee won’t like: An 0-2 record vs. the SEC. It’s not that a two-loss Clemson team can’t earn a spot in the 12-team field, but it might not win a résumé debate against another two-loss contender. That puts more pressure on Clemson to win the ACC in this particular scenario, which would guarantee the two-loss Tigers a spot in the field. If they don’t, the committee would compare wins against NC State, Florida State, Louisville and Virginia Tech against a schedule like … say, Michigan, above.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 25.3% | Win national title: 1.3%
2023 record: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +1600
CFP ranking history: 45 appearances, highest at No. 1 (three times)
Dinich’s take: LSU’s schedule is a double-edged sword because it’s loaded with chances to impress the selection committee against elite competition, but those games could also add up to three or more losses. Nobody — including the committee — knows yet how conference realignment will impact how the group views multiple losses against more challenging schedules. LSU looks like a preseason bubble team, but can move up significantly by the first ranking if it can survive an October that includes Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Alabama.
Toughest test: Oct. 26 at Texas A&M. It’s the second of back-to-back road matchups in late October, at an unforgiving venue, and the toughest opponent the Tigers will face in a true away game. It’s also the last game they’ll play before the selection committee announces its first ranking of the season.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record vs. the Big Ten. That’s right, the L.A. schools are now in the Big Ten, and LSU has a chance to beat both USC and UCLA in September. LSU opens the season against USC in the Vegas Kickoff Classic and hosts UCLA on Sept. 21. The nonconference matchups are just a snippet of a grueling schedule that also includes Oklahoma and a trip to the Swamp. If LSU doesn’t win the SEC, a 2-0 record against the Big Ten could help sway the committee to reward the Tigers with an at-large bid over a team that didn’t play as difficult of a nonconference schedule.
What the committee won’t like: No statement road wins. Each committee member has a statistical sheet on every team, and it includes records at neutral sites and away games. If LSU doesn’t beat USC in Las Vegas, its only other trips are to South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida. They should all be respectable opponents, but how many will be CFP top-25 teams come Selection Day? ESPN’s FPI gives Texas A&M a 52.9% chance to beat LSU. That’s a coin toss but it could be the Tigers’ best opportunity to impress the committee with a true road win.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 24% | Win national title: .9%
2023 record: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 150-1
CFP ranking history: Three appearances, highest at No. 16
Dinich’s take: Kansas is light-years better than it used to be, but better chances to make the CFP than Utah? And K-State? A rival they haven’t beaten since 2008? Pump the brakes. For the first time since 2009, the Jayhawks are coming off a bowl victory, and ESPN’s FPI projects them to win every game — except Oct. 26 at… K-State. You have to get all the way to No. 15 on this list before you find a team with less than a 1% chance to win the national title. Kansas has earned the distinction.
Toughest test: Oct. 26 at K-State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats a 53.6% chance to win this game for the 16th straight time. Last year, Kansas allowed its rival to overcome an 11-point second-half deficit. The Jayhawks were playing with a former walk-on at quarterback, though, in place of injured starter Jalon Daniels and his backup, Jason Bean. If Daniels can stay healthy, Kansas might snap its losing streak.
What the committee will like: Style points. With six road games, it’s not fair to call this schedule easy, but the reality is that there aren’t any blockbuster matchups in the lineup. If Kansas is going to earn an at-large spot, it has to leave no doubt it looks the part — and do it on a consistent basis. The selection committee is more impressed by wins against CFP top-25 teams, but there is certainly respect in the room for beating a bowl-bound team, especially on the road in convincing style.
What the committee won’t like: No Big 12 title. If the Jayhawks win the new-look Big 12 — which FPI says they will — they’re in. If they don’t? The selection committee will take issue with their schedule. Pop quiz: Where is Lindenwood? Exactly. Apparently, Lindenwood is at Kansas for the Jayhawks’ season opener. Then they face Illinois and UNLV — the same team Kansas beat in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. If Kansas doesn’t win the Big 12, it needs to hope the selection committee ranks some of its conference opponents — such as K-State — and it needs to win those games.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 21.4% | Win national title: .7%
2023 record: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: 31 appearances, highest at No. 7
Dinich’s take: K-State should be above rival Kansas until proven otherwise, and there shouldn’t be such a gap between the Wildcats and Utah. K-State and Utah should be the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, but ESPN’s FPI gives Kansas the best chance to win the league (17.4%). If K-State wins the conference, it’s in the playoff, but its chances will drop significantly if it’s fighting for an at-large spot, unless the Wildcats look dominant on a consistent basis and have multiple wins against ranked opponents.
Toughest test: Oct. 19 at West Virginia. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a better than 50% chance to win each of its games, but the trip to WVU is the lowest at 52.5%. It’s an unforgiving venue, and coach Neal Brown’s program is trending up.
What the committee will like: A signature September. In 2023, the Wildcats came up short in some of their best opportunities to impress the committee, including close losses at Missouri, at Oklahoma State and at Texas. This year, K-State needs a strong start with September home wins against Arizona and Oklahoma State — the two conference opponents most likely to be ranked. The selection committee also respects road wins, and a chance to beat Tulane on Sept. 7 could mean a win against the eventual American Athletic Conference champs. If K-State can have a strong September, it will give the Wildcats some much-needed wiggle room because back-to-back road trips to Colorado and West Virginia are trap games. Plus, the Oct. 26 game against rival Kansas could make for a more difficult October than it might seem on paper. If K-State makes it to the Big 12 title game but loses a close one to a ranked Utah team, the committee will want to see proof that it’s CFP material, and there’s a strong chance the best evidence could be in September.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 7 loss at Tulane. This could present a difficult decision for the committee if both teams go on to win their respective conferences, which isn’t a farfetched scenario. Both teams would make the CFP as two of the five highest-ranked conference champions, but which team would the committee rank higher? Would the group honor the Sept. 7 head-to-head win for the Green Wave, and rank the AAC champ ahead of the Big 12 champ? That would impact seeding and give Tulane a first-round bye. If their records are the same, that could happen, but Tulane also travels to Oklahoma on Sept. 14. If K-State finishes with fewer losses, the committee could justify that as a reason to rank the Wildcats ahead of Tulane despite the loss.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 21% | Win national title: 1%
2023 record: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +5000
CFP ranking history: 20 appearances, highest at No. 4
Dinich’s take: The Aggies’ CFP chances aren’t better than those of Ole Miss, which has its best team yet under coach Lane Kiffin, but Texas A&M is outside of the CFP bubble as a borderline preseason top-25 team. There is certainly reason for optimism, as the hires of both coach Mike Elko and offensive coordinator Collin Klein were home runs. It’s going to take them some time, though, to close the gap with Georgia, Texas, Alabama and the other top contenders in the conference. The Aggies have to learn to finish drives and protect quarterback Conner Weigman, but the defense should again be stellar under Elko, the Aggies’ former defensive coordinator.
Toughest test: Nov. 30 vs. Texas. The Aggies will have home-field advantage, but ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 70.8% chance to win. It will be the first meeting between the rivals since 2011.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas A&M has the eighth-best chance to reach the SEC championship game — and only a 3.2% shot at winning the conference. Considering how difficult it will be for the Aggies to win the SEC in Elko’s first season, a victory over the Irish would go a long way in the selection committee meeting room as the group considers teams for at-large bids. Beating Notre Dame was integral to Ohio State’s CFP berth in 2022 when it didn’t win the Big Ten title. Beyond the Irish, Texas A&M’s nonconference schedule is weak (McNeese, Bowling Green and New Mexico State). The selection committee would compare that against other at-large contenders with more impressive nonconference wins — especially if the Aggies can’t make up for it during the regular season against ranked SEC opponents.
What the committee won’t like: Road woes. The Aggies play only four true road games — at Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Auburn. None of those teams is projected to contend for the SEC title, and it’s possible none finishes in the CFP top 25. If Texas A&M is going to assert itself as a CFP contender, it needs to show the selection committee it can win those games — all of them. Because the Aggies aren’t going to win all the others. ESPN’s FPI gives Florida a slight preference to win at 50.1%. If the Gators don’t pull it together and suffer a fourth straight losing season, that’s the kind of loss that could be difficult for the Aggies to overcome on Selection Day.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 20.7% | Win national title: .8%
2023 record: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +1600
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 4
Dinich’s take: Ole Miss should have a top-10 chance to make the CFP. It would have qualified for the 12-team field last year and in 2021 — and the Rebels are likely to be even better this season with quarterback Jaxson Dart returning. With former Alabama coach Nick Saban retired, and significant turnover on LSU’s roster, this could be the perfect opportunity for coach Lane Kiffin to take the next step in the SEC and the CFP.
Toughest test: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia. The Bulldogs remain the standard in the SEC, and last year beat Ole Miss 52-17. Ole Miss can make the playoff, but it has to close this gap significantly if it’s going to have any chance of winning it. This year, the Rebels will have home-field advantage.
What the committee will like: A winning record against LSU, Oklahoma, and Georgia. These are the three most difficult opponents on the Rebels’ schedule, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. If Ole Miss can go 2-1, though, it will put itself in position to play for the SEC championship (assuming it wins its other games, of course) and almost assuredly earn an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The selection committee won’t be impressed by the first-half schedule, which includes nonconference games against Furman, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern. A win against Wake Forest will help more if the Demon Deacons are ranked, but as long as they have a winning season, the committee would look favorably on that victory. Still, the Rebels will need more to impress the group if they don’t win the SEC. If Ole Miss is as good as those within the program believe it is, the Rebels should be undefeated heading into their Oct. 12 trip to LSU.
What the committee won’t like: No statement road wins. If Ole Miss doesn’t win at LSU, it might not face another ranked opponent on the road. The Rebels travel to Wake Forest, South Carolina, Arkansas and Florida. This isn’t something likely to keep Ole Miss out of the CFP, but it will be a point of discussion if there is a close debate.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 18.3% | Win national title: 0.6%
2023 record: 10-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 150-1
CFP ranking history: 18 appearances, highest at No. 5
Dinich’s take: This is a little high for a borderline top-25 team with such a rigorous road schedule. Louisville, which ended up No. 15 on Selection Day, wouldn’t have qualified for the 12-team field last year, and this year’s lineup is even more daunting. The program is trending up under coach Jeff Brohm, who led Louisville to the ACC championship game last year, and any team that has a chance to win its league now has a chance at the CFP. There’s still work to do, though, before Louisville is winning the ACC — like beating Florida State and Clemson. The good news for Louisville is that it doesn’t face FSU during the regular season, but that’s the only scheduling break the Cardinals get.
Toughest test: Sept. 28 at Notre Dame. Last year’s win against the Irish helped Louisville gain respect in the committee meeting room and a repeat would carry even more weight this year because the game is on the road. When comparing Louisville with a similar team for an at-large spot, the selection committee would favor a road win against the Irish over a weaker nonconference win.
What the committee will like: Road wins. In addition to facing Notre Dame in South Bend, Louisville travels to Clemson, across the country to new ACC member Stanford and to SEC rival Kentucky. That’s in addition to ACC road trips to Virginia and Boston College. Five of the Cardinals’ last seven games are away. The committee includes former players and coaches and current athletic directors, all of whom understand the difficulty of travel.
What the committee won’t like: Another bad loss. There were a lot of factors in the committee’s decision last year to exclude undefeated ACC champion FSU from its top four, and some of it was a lack of respect for the Louisville team the Seminoles beat in the ACC championship game. The group considers opponents’ opponents, and Louisville’s Oct. 14 loss at Pitt — which finished 3-9 — was something they remembered.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 18.2% | Win national title: 0.6%
2023 record: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 11 appearances, highest at No. 2
Dinich’s take: Coach Mario Cristobal has lured some top talent, but the Canes’ chances of reaching the CFP shouldn’t be higher than NC State’s until they prove they’re a contender in their own conference. In addition to losing a game it shouldn’t have last year — a disastrous finish against Georgia Tech — Miami also dropped three straight to ACC opponents NC State, FSU and Louisville. With Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward taking over the offense, there’s reason for optimism, and Miami — at least on paper — has enough talent to contend for the ACC title.
Toughest test: Oct. 19 at Louisville. Miami will have a bye week to prepare for this game, and it’s going to need it after flying cross-country to face new ACC opponent Cal. ESPN’s FPI gives Louisville a 56.4% chance to win.
What the committee will like: An unofficial state title. Miami will face in-state opponents Florida, Florida A&M, South Florida and Florida State. The Canes have to leave their home state only four times all season. If they can open the season with a win at Florida and beat FSU at home Oct. 26 to go 4-0 against in-state opponents, Miami will boost its chances of earning an at-large spot. The former coaches and players on the selection committee understand the difficulty of facing in-state rivals, with the emotions and intangibles that accompany those games. They are factored into the conversation. A win at Florida will mean more if the Gators are ranked, but the committee will still value a road win against an in-state SEC rival if Florida finishes above .500. Even at 5-7 last year, Florida State was rewarded by the committee for beating the Gators in the Swamp.
What the committee won’t like: Inconsistency. If Miami is going to earn an at-large spot, it can’t have a repeat of last season, when it found a way to beat Clemson in double overtime but did a face-plant against Georgia Tech. This year, Miami has a chance to defeat a much-improved Virginia Tech team on a Friday night, but needs to avoid an upset at Cal the following Saturday. That could be trickier than it sounds considering the time difference and travel. Without Clemson or NC State on the regular-season schedule, the committee will be looking for Miami to leave no doubt it’s the better team against unranked competition and earn a statement win or two against CFP top-25 opponents.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 16.6% | Win national title: 0.5%
2023 record: 11-3
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 400-1
CFP ranking history: Three appearances, highest at No. 24
Dinich’s take: SMU, a program that has lost each of its past four bowl games, has better CFP chances than Utah? Arizona? Oklahoma State? USC? ESPN Analytics has the Mustangs winning every game but two — against Florida State and Louisville — which is a big reason its chances are above some other contenders here. However, if SMU doesn’t win those two games, the committee won’t be impressed enough with the rest of the schedule to award SMU a coveted at-large spot, especially when there will be so many other contenders with more rigorous schedules and better two-loss records. SMU’s schedule is No. 73 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. ESPN BET has SMU’s win total at 7.5, a mark the program has reached in three of its past five seasons. Just because SMU won 11 games last year and joined the ACC this year doesn’t mean it’s instantly going to look like a power conference contender. Instead, its playoff path just got more difficult…
Toughest test: Sept. 28 vs. Florida State. SMU will officially begin its ACC membership against the defending conference champions. SMU lost to the only power conference opponents it faced last year — at Oklahoma and at TCU.
What the committee will like: Convincing wins. Considering the Mustangs leave Dallas only once before October, and they might not face a ranked opponent in November, the committee will be looking for SMU to assert itself against overmatched teams or those equal to them. If SMU is going to earn an at-large spot, it can’t lose in November against Pitt, BC, Virginia and Cal. And it can’t look sloppy. The committee will be comparing the Mustangs with Notre Dame and the third- and fourth-best teams in the Big Ten and SEC.
What the committee won’t like: An 0-2 record against FSU and Louisville. If SMU doesn’t beat at least one of those teams, its CFP hopes are done. With a nonconference lineup that includes Nevada, Houston Christian and Big 12 opponents BYU and TCU, there’s not enough to compensate for losing to the two best teams on the schedule. If strength of schedule were based on academics, SMU’s lineup would be playoff-worthy, but beating Stanford, Cal, Duke and Virginia won’t amount to an at-large bid on its own.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 16.4% | Win national title: 0.1%
2023 record: 8-6
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 500-1
CFP ranking history: 20 appearances, highest at No. 19 (three times)
Dinich’s take: The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the 12-team playoff, so someone from either the Mountain West, American, C-USA, MAC or Sun Belt will make the field. With highly touted USC transfer Malachi Nelson at quarterback, plus the return of running back Ashton Jeanty and a deep defense, Boise State might be the most talented and complete Group of 5 team competing for a playoff bid. The Broncos return 18 starters for first-year coach Spencer Danielson.
Toughest test: Sept. 7 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State more than a 50% chance to win each of its games — except this one. Oregon has a 92.7% chance to win at home, where it has lost only once in the past five seasons.
What the committee will like: Three major teams on the schedule. Wins against two of them (Oregon State and Washington State) would give the Broncos a boost over Liberty, which again has the worst schedule in the FBS but is projected to win its league. Liberty again doesn’t face any Power 4 opponents. Boise State could make it much easier on the group this fall, as it would almost certainly award the higher ranking to a Broncos team that lost only to Oregon over an undefeated Liberty squad.
What the committee won’t like: Multiple losses. This is where it gets really tricky — and possibly controversial. If Boise State loses to Oregon and maybe a trap game at Hawai’i, but wins the Mountain West Conference, will the committee still rank the Broncos ahead of undefeated C-USA champion Liberty? Boise State in this scenario still would have wins against Washington State and Oregon State. Or what if the Broncos lose at Oregon and at home on Friday night in the regular-season finale against Oregon State? The same questions would loom. The selection committee faced a lot of public backlash last year for its ranking of Liberty despite the Flames’ owning the weakest schedule in the country. Would the panel continue to honor the undefeated record over the more challenging path? It’s a scenario it would probably prefer to avoid.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 16% | Win national title: 0.3%
2023 record: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 150-1
CFP ranking history: 13 appearances, highest at No. 7
Dinich’s take: This is about the right spot for Arizona as far as its CFP chances go, but the Wildcats shouldn’t be ahead of Utah — at least not yet. There will be a coaching transition period as San Jose State’s Brent Brennan replaces Jedd Fisch, who went to Washington and lured about a dozen players with him. Arizona also has a tricky road trip to UCF on Nov. 2. This could be a three-loss team, which would make it a long shot without a Big 12 title.
Toughest test: Sept. 28 at Utah. The Utes were picked by the media to finish first in their debut season as a member of the Big 12. Quarterback Cam Rising, who led Utah to consecutive Pac-12 titles and Rose Bowl appearances before he was injured, is back after missing last season with a knee injury. Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is one of the most experienced coaches in the country, and eight starters return from a defense that allowed just 19.3 points per game last year.
What the committee will like: Back-to-back September road wins against ranked opponents. The committee won’t have to wait until its first ranking to know how serious to take Arizona as a CFP contender. The Wildcats travel to K-State on Sept. 13 (a Friday), followed by the trip to Utah on Sept. 28. If Arizona is undefeated at the end of September, it will already be leading the Big 12 race. It’s possible Arizona could face either one of those teams again in the conference title game. A regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 conference champs would do wonders for their at-large chances, as the selection committee has valued similar wins on Selection Day before.
What the committee won’t like: A losing road record. Arizona has to go 3-2 or better on the road. The Wildcats travel to K-State, Utah, BYU, UCF and TCU. None of those are easy. If they slip up twice on the road but still win the Big 12 title, they’re in. Anything else, though, and the selection committee would have a hard time justifying an at-large spot. If Arizona beats BYU, UCF and TCU but loses to both K-State and Utah, it’s going to need some help to get into the Big 12 title game, but that’s possible. The selection committee would have a more difficult time forgiving multiple road losses to unranked opponents — and ESPN’s FPI favors both UCF and TCU.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 15.6% | Win national title: 0.1%
2023 record: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 2,000-1
CFP ranking history: Four appearances, highest at No. 22 (two times)
Dinich’s take: The Roadrunners should have more in-conference competition in the American than Boise State, which is likely to have an edge over Fresno State and San Diego State in the Mountain West. UTSA, in its second season in the AAC, will get a stronger challenge from Tulane and Memphis for the conference title. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor, who is entering his fourth season, has made the program a conference contender, but there are some questions this fall after the departure of key veterans, including seven-year quarterback Frank Harris.
Toughest test: Sept. 14 at Texas. This is similar to Boise State’s matchup with Oregon in that ESPN’s FPI projects UTSA will win every game but this one. This is the only Power 4 opponent on the Roadrunners’ schedule, though, and Texas has a 93% chance to win at home.
What the committee will like: A one-loss conference champion. Without picking an upset at Texas (which seems farfetched), the ideal scenario here for UTSA would be to finish as a one-loss conference champion. It would help the Roadrunners tremendously if they could manage a respectable game against the Longhorns. The committee notices the ebbs and flows of games, which are sometimes closer than the score might indicate. Could UTSA pull that off and avoid a lopsided result? If so, it could help in the Selection Day debate when the Roadrunners are being compared against other Group of 5 champions that might be undefeated.
What the committee won’t like: A second loss to an unranked team. This is why UTSA is in the right spot behind Boise State — because the Roadrunners don’t have as many opportunities to impress the committee, which means they also have less margin for error. Assuming UTSA loses to Texas, any other loss on the schedule will bump it down a notch in the eyes of the committee when being compared with a one-loss Boise State team. The question remains, though, how the committee would compare it with Liberty. If the committee follows its precedent, undefeated Liberty would be ranked ahead of two-loss UTSA even though the Roadrunners’ schedule is No. 64 and Liberty’s is No. 134.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 13.9% | Win national title: 0.3%
2023 record: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 100-1
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 14
Dinich’s take: NC State’s chances should be slightly higher — and for now, ahead of Miami — because of the Pack’s favorable schedule and decent chances of winning the ACC. Somehow, NC State misses four of the best teams in its league during the regular season (FSU, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Miami). While NC State hasn’t recruited as much elite talent as Miami (which had the No. 5 recruiting class in the country in 2023, and No. 6 in 2024, while NC State was outside the top 25 both years, according to ESPN), coach Dave Doeren has done more with what he has. That includes beating the Canes last year.
Toughest test: Sept. 21 at Clemson. The Wolfpack beat the Tigers at home last year, but have to travel to Death Valley, where they have lost nine straight. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A nonconference win against Tennessee. The Vols have the potential to be a CFP top-25 team and in the playoff race, which makes this nonconference game critical for both teams. The committee has always shown high regard for the SEC in its weekly rankings, and if NC State can knock off one of those teams, it can also earn an edge on Selection Day against another contender with a weaker résumé.
What the committee won’t like: An 0-2 record against the Vols and Clemson. NC State doesn’t face either team that played in the ACC championship game last year — FSU and Louisville — so the selection committee will want to see the Pack beat the most elite competition it can. That didn’t happen last year, as NC State went 1-3 against teams that finished the season ranked in in the CFP poll, compared with 8-1 against unranked opponents. The best team NC State beat last year was No. 22 Clemson, which finished with four losses.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 13.5% | Win national title: 0.4%
2023 record: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 100-1
CFP ranking history: 29 appearances, highest at No. 2
Dinich’s take: It’s only Year 2 under coach Hugh Freeze, and Auburn is still working its way into the upper half of the SEC. There are questions about the passing ability of quarterback Payton Thorne, Freeze fired his offensive coordinator, and DJ Durkin was hired as defensive coordinator. There are teams ranked below — Oklahoma State and Utah — that have a more realistic chance of winning their conference. ESPN’s FPI gives Auburn less than a 1% chance to win the SEC and a 2.9% shot at making the league title game — 10th best in the SEC. Auburn’s schedule is challenging enough that it could have four or more losses, which would eliminate the Tigers from an at-large spot. Auburn is a dark horse candidate at best.
Toughest test: Oct. 5 at Georgia. After opening the season with five straight home games, Auburn’s first trip will be a doozy — and it’s just one week after hosting SEC newcomer Oklahoma. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia an 88.4% chance to win.
What the committee will like: The strength of schedule. Auburn enters the season with the fifth-hardest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. If Auburn exceeds expectations and finishes 10-2 or better, there’s little doubt the Tigers will earn an at-large spot. They will have to win some difficult road games along the way. Auburn travels to Georgia, Missouri and Kentucky in October, and ends the season at Alabama. The selection committee has rewarded SEC teams with less challenging schedules.
What the committee won’t like: Oh-for-October. After facing Georgia on Oct. 5, Auburn has a bye week to prepare for the Oct. 19 trip to Missouri before ending the month at Kentucky. Auburn can’t lose all three of those games and expect the selection committee to reward it with a CFP bid — even if the Tigers find a way to beat Oklahoma and win the Iron Bowl. The nonconference schedule — Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico and Louisiana-Monroe — won’t win the Tigers any debates on Selection Day. In that particular scenario, the committee would have a hard time justifying a CFP bid for a team that had one road win.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 13.4% | Win national title: 0.3%
2023 record: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 75-1
CFP ranking history: 33 appearances, highest at No. 4
Dinich’s take: USC couldn’t win the Pac-12 or finish in the CFP top 25 with 2024 NFL draft No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. Now it’s supposed to win the Big Ten without him? There are lofty expectations for quarterback Miller Moss, but it’s going to take a skinny minute for the Trojans to assert themselves as a contender with a new quarterback and a new defensive coordinator in D’Anton Lynn.
Toughest test: Does the entire Big Ten count? This L.A. school heads to Michigan. Minnesota. Maryland. It’s all unfamiliar territory, but the most difficult opponent might be a familiar one — rival Notre Dame. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 61.8% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 3-0 nonconference record. If USC can open the season with a win against LSU in Las Vegas and close the regular season by beating Notre Dame (and assuming a Week 2 home win against Utah State), it should be in the CFP conversation — even without winning the Big Ten. Those wins would give USC, which also has home games against Wisconsin and Penn State, some much-needed margin for error in its first season in the conference. If USC can finish the season 10-2 with bookend wins against LSU and Notre Dame, the selection committee will point to the nonconference schedule as a major reason for inclusion.
What the committee won’t like: An 0-2 record against the old Pac-12 foes. It’s one thing to lose to Michigan and Penn State during the first season in the Big Ten. It’s another to lose at Washington and at UCLA, which both are in transition phases under new head coaches. They might not be CFP top-25 teams this year. If USC is going to earn an at-large bid, the selection committee will want to see the Trojans leave no doubt they’re the better team against these opponents. USC has lost two of the past three games against the Bruins and is trying to avoid the first three-game losing streak in the series since 2012-14.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 12.6% | Win national title: 0.4%
2023 record: 10-4
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 250-1
CFP ranking history: 43 appearances, highest at No. 5
Dinich’s take: This is another Big 12 team that shouldn’t be ranked ahead of Utah yet, but as far as the Cowboys’ chances of making the CFP, this is spot-on. With 20 starters returning — the most of any Big 12 team — Oklahoma State is experienced and talented enough to win the Big 12, but Utah has been a consistently better defensive team. The selection committee has rewarded teams with strong offenses and weak defenses before, but if the Cowboys don’t win their league, the committee will be looking for a more complete team when it comes to at-large spots.
Toughest test: Sept. 28 at K-State. Not that the week before will be much easier, but the Cowboys at least get Utah at home on Sept. 21. And if Oklahoma State loses to Utah, the road trip to K-State will be even more pressure-packed and meaningful. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a 60.5% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 7 win against Arkansas. This, of course, is assuming Arkansas takes a dramatic step forward from last year’s 4-8 finish. Even if the Razorbacks aren’t ranked, if they finish above .500, a win here will get the selection committee’s attention. As long as Arkansas has a respectable season, it’s the kind of nonconference victory that can help separate Oklahoma State from other at-large contenders in the selection committee meeting room if it doesn’t win the Big 12. It could also help Oklahoma State compensate for a tough nonconference loss, and the Cowboys also have to face Utah and K-State in what will be a difficult September.
What the committee won’t like: A November fizzle. Oklahoma State could really wow the selection committee in the first half of the season, but it could also let it slip away with November trap games. Two of the last three games are on the road — at TCU and on Friday, Nov. 29, to end the regular season at Colorado. Last season in September, it lost to South Alabama and Iowa State, but beat K-State, Kansas and even Oklahoma in the middle of the season. The selection committee has historically appreciated consistency, and while a bad loss can be overcome in the 12-team format with a conference title, it will still make things very difficult for teams competing for at-large spots.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 12.5% | Win national title: 0.2%
2023 record: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 60-1
CFP ranking history: 44 appearances, highest at No. 5
Dinich’s take: Utah should be the Big 12’s highest-ranked team this preseason, and without Oklahoma or Texas, it should be a very tight race, which means the scoreboards will likely be much closer than the preseason FPI rankings. Utah has three key ingredients to make a successful run to the CFP: a veteran head coach in Kyle Whittingham, a proven winner at quarterback in Cam Rising and one of the nation’s stingiest defenses.
Toughest test: Sept. 21 at Oklahoma State. ESPN’s FPI gives Oklahoma State a 58.3% chance to win. The Big 12 is projected to have the tightest conference race, as nine schools have at least a 10% chance to reach the title game and a 5% chance to win it, according to ESPN Analytics. Utah and Oklahoma State each have a 17% chance to reach the championship game.
What the committee will like: Style points. Winning the unofficial state title isn’t going to impress the selection committee, as wins against Southern Utah, Utah State and BYU won’t separate the Utes from other CFP contenders. Utah has three main chances to do that — Sept. 21 at Oklahoma State, Sept. 28 against Arizona, and in the Big 12 championship game if it qualifies. Everything else is an opportunity to show the committee it’s a CFP-caliber team that doesn’t play down to its competition and avoids upsets. Nothing is guaranteed for Utah if it doesn’t win the conference, and the committee will scrutinize the Utes’ schedule, which might include only one road trip against a ranked opponent (Oklahoma State).
What the committee won’t like: Losing to the same team twice. If Utah loses to either Oklahoma State or Arizona during the regular season — and then again to the same team in the Big 12 championship game — that’s likely a dagger in its CFP hopes, even if Utah finishes as a two-loss runner-up. Without facing K-State during the regular season, Utah would have a hard time compensating for that when the selection committee compared the Utes with other at-large contenders with stronger résumés.
FPI’s chance to make playoff: 11.5% | Win national title: 0.3%
2023 record: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win the national title: 300-1
CFP ranking history: N/A
Dinich’s take: This is a sleeper that is making progress and could surprise some teams, but until proven otherwise, it remains a long shot for the CFP. The Red Raiders were picked by the media to finish ninth in the Big 12. Without a conference title, Texas Tech would likely have to win at Arizona and/or at Oklahoma State to give the committee a signature victory to consider for an at-large spot. There are a handful of coin-toss games — at TCU, at Iowa State and against West Virginia — that could really help Texas Tech contend for an at-large spot, but there’s no margin for error in those.
Toughest test: Oct. 5 at Arizona. It’s a new conference opponent and one expected to contend for the Big 12 title. ESPN’s FPI gives Arizona a 59.9% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A winning road record. The Red Raiders’ best chances to impress the selection committee with quality wins will come on the road. The most elite competition will be at Arizona and Oklahoma State, but it will also be difficult to win at TCU and Iowa State. ESPN’s FPI favors every Texas Tech road opponent except Washington State.
What the committee won’t like: The overall schedule strength. Texas Tech is ranked No. 69 in SOS, according to ESPN Analytics, and might face only two CFP top-25 opponents during the regular season (Oct. 5 at Arizona and Nov. 23 at Oklahoma State). Its nonconference lineup includes FCS Abilene Christian, Washington State — which is No. 64 in ESPN’s FPI — and North Texas, which is No. 106 in FPI.