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This weekend, the XFL embarks on the second half of its season, surpassing the 2020 version that folded after only five games. The league feels much different this time with the promotion power of Dwayne Johnson and credibility of ESPN fueling it through this season. Despite the many differences with the 2023 version, the play on the field mirrors much of what we saw in 2020. After a slow start for offenses, teams averaged 21 points per game and 5.3 yards per play in Weeks 3-5. These numbers are remarkably similar to 2020 over its final three weeks (21 points and 5.17 yards per play). Without having anything after Week 5 to reference in 2020, some very significant questions are still lingering for bettors.
How far into the season will offenses continue on a positive trajectory? And more importantly, what is the ceiling for offenses in the second half of the season? Week 5 saw three of the four games close with totals in the 40s for the first time this year, and this week’s game between St.Louis and Vegas will likely become the league’s first game to close with a total north of 45 (currently 44.5 at BetMGM).
If the offensive success continues, will we see teams without explosive offenses fail to keep up? It’s something to think about as the futures market continues to take shape. But for now, let’s dig into all four of this week’s games, and go over some advantageous bets on both sides and totals.
Seattle Sea Dragons (-8.5) at Orlando Guardians (O/U 42.5)
Whoever said you can’t win football games by turning the ball over never saw the Seattle Sea Dragons. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in every game this season, but its offense has proved to be explosive enough to overcome the giveaways over the last three weeks. I’m done believing it will catch up to them, and it surely won’t against the 0-5 Guardians. Orlando allowed 30 or more points in 4 of 5 weeks, including 44 to Houston in Week 4. Seattle can easily do the same. The Guardians found a quarterback in Quinten Dormady, who went 22-of-25 for 256 yards and two touchdowns last week, so the over is a solid look as well. His performance is the only reason the Sea Dragons aren’t double-digit favorites, but I will bet that he fails to follow it up against a much tougher defense. The bet: Seattle -8.5
St. Louis BattleHawks (-3) at Vegas Vipers (O/U 44.5)
First things first. Vegas is an over team. The last three Vipers games combined for 56, 40, and 67 points, and the Vipers are 4-1 to the over through five weeks despite playing in rough weather in two of them. The Vipers are slowly catching Seattle as the league’s most dangerous passing attack, leading the XFL in explosive pass plays over 20-plus yards and averaging 6.6 and 6.7 yards per play in consecutive weeks. Vegas wants to go score-for-score, and its porous defense lures teams into high-variance shootouts. The BattleHawks are more efficient than explosive on offense, but what’s really going to hurt them here is their inability to protect A.J. McCarron against PFF’s second-highest graded pass rush. Sacks are the best way to stop drives, and St. Louis has allowed more sacks than every team outside of Orlando. Vegas usually finds a way to lose at the end, but I’m betting it can get enough stops to keep it close enough to cover this number. Don’t be afraid to hit the over either. The bet: Vegas +3
San Antonio Brahmas (+3) at Arlington Renegades (O/U 32.5)
Arlington upset San Antonio 12-10 this past weekend as 2.5-point dogs. The performance was impressive enough that the market has moved them to 3-point favorites as the teams run it back. Brahmas coach Hines Ward tried to shake up the offense last week by demoting OC Jaime Elizondo and benching QB Jack Coan. It didn’t work as Brahmas starting QB Reid Sinnett broke his foot while throwing a game-changing interception in the end zone, forcing them to turn to an ineffective Coan. In a game featuring two teams averaging 3.7 and 3.8 yards per play, the best bet is clearly the under. The signing of WR Vic Bolden will give the Renegades some juice, but it’s unlikely we’ll see him pop off this week. The same teams just combined for 22 points, and Arlington needed a fury of flags to fuel its only touchdown drive. The bet: Under 32.5
Houston Roughnecks (+2.5) at DC Defenders (O/U 42)
After five weeks of bludgeoning my bankroll into submission, I am officially a believer in the DC Defenders. In their fifth straight win, DC was able to impressively run all over the BattleHawks for 248 yards in front of the St. Louis faithful. It was the Roughnecks who were arguably the league’s top dog before strolling into Seattle last Thursday night. Standout WR Jontre Kirklin suffered a season-ending injury on the first play, and Houston’s Air Raid offense sputtered in his absence. Houston entered as the XFL’s only team to average over 30 points per game, and without Kirklin it was held to an ugly 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Now, heading to the home of the beer snake to face the undefeated Defenders is not what the doctor ordered, and I expect the ‘Necks to have a rough go as they figure things out offensively. It’s business as usual for the league’s only team that is 5-0 ATS. Let’s lay the short number. The bet: DC -2.5