World Cup group scenarios 2022: How teams can qualify and advance to Round of 16 knockout bracket

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We’re down to the final matchday in the group stage, and all 16 teams advancing to the knockouts will be known by Friday, December 2.

Only eight teams have clinched a berth in the Round of 16 with eight more spots up for grabs.

Tiebreakers are sure to come into play with a number of groups. Those are listed in their entirety further below.

The Sporting News runs through the qualifying scenarios for each group below.

MORE: All the details for the World Cup Round of 16


World Cup Group A scenarios to advance

There were two available berths on the final day and both were clinched by the teams that won their last games to close out group play.

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. NetherlandsQ 7 3 2 0 1 5 1 +4
2. SenegalQ 6 3 2 1 0 5 4 +1
3. EcuadorE 4 3 1 1 1 4 3 +1
4. QatarE 0 3 0 3 0 1 7 -6
  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

Netherlands

  • Win vs. QAT: The Dutch made it look easy with a tidy 2-0 win over Qatar, and with Ecuador’s 2-1 loss, the Netherlands claimed sole possession of 1st place.

Ecuador

  • Loss vs. SEN: Ecuador could’ve gone through with a win or draw, and instead lost to the Lions of Teranga. Since the Netherlands also won, Ecuador were eliminated.

Senegal

  • Win vs. ECU: Senegal clinched a Round of 16 berth thanks to the win over Ecuador. Since the Netherlands won their game, the Lions of Teranga came in 2nd place.

Qatar

  • Loss vs. NED: The host nation was already eliminated after Matchday 2 and had nothing to play for on the final day but pride.

World Cup Group B scenarios to advance

All four teams had a shot to make it to the Round of 16 on the final matchday, but the two berths were claimed by the teams that won their last game.

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. EnglandQ 7 3 2 0 1 9 2 +7
2. USAQ 5 3 1 0 2 2 1 +1
3. IranE 3 3 1 2 0 4 7 -3
4. WalesE 1 3 0 2 1 1 6 -5
  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

England

  • Win vs. WAL: England advanced as group winner thanks to the 3-0 win over Wales.

Iran

  • Loss vs. USA: Iran’s loss automatically eliminated them from the World Cup.

USA

  • Win vs. IRN: USA were in a must-win situation. They beat Iran 1-0 and advanced as the group runner-up since England also won their game.

Wales

  • Loss vs. ENG: Only a win would have given Wales a chance to advance, and instead they lost 3-0 to England and were eliminated.

World Cup Group C scenarios to advance

Each team in Group C had a scenario in which it could have advanced to the knockouts on the last day. Poland held off Mexico on goal difference (0 to -1)

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. ArgentinaQ 6 3 2 1 0 5 2 +3
2. PolandQ 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 0
3. MexicoE 4 3 1 1 1 2 3 -1
4. Saudi Arabia-E 3 3 1 2 0 3 5 -2
  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

Poland

  • Loss vs. ARG: Poland still qualified despite a 2-0 loss to Argentina. Poland’s goal difference of 0 was better than Mexico’s -1.

Argentina

  • Win vs. POL: Argentina qualified thanks to the win. They finished in first place because Saudi Arabia lost.

Saudi Arabia

  • Loss vs. MEX: Saudi Arabia knew they would be eliminated with a loss to Mexico and the 2-1 final sent them crashing out.

Mexico

  • Win vs. KSA: Mexico needed to win and did just that, 2-1 against Saudi Arabia. But it was not enough to overcome the goal difference gap with Poland. Mexico needed to score more goals (or Poland needed to lose by more). Mexico’s -1 goal difference was a single goal short of tying Poland. 
     

World Cup Group D scenarios to advance

France clinched one of the two berths entering the final day and despite losing to Tunisia, they held on to first place.

Australia’s win secured them the other spot. An Australia draw would have sent Tunisia through.

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. FranceQ 6 3 2 1 0 6 3 +3
2. AustraliaQ 6 3 2 1 0 3 4 -1
3. Tunisia-E 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 0
4. DenmarkE 1 3 0 2 1 1 3 -2
  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

France

  • Loss vs. TUN: France lost to Tunisia, but still clinched first place due to the goal difference tiebreaker over Australia (+3 vs. -1).

Australia

Denmark

Tunisia

  • Win vs. FRA: Tunisia did the unthinkable and beat France, but they failed to qualify given Australia also won their match vs. Denmark to finish with six points ahead of Tunisia’s four.

World Cup Group E scenarios to advance

All four teams are still alive on the final matchday with two tickets to the knockout rounds up for grabs.

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Spain 4 2 1 0 1 8 1 +7
2. Japan 3 2 1 1 0 2 2 0
3. Costa Rica 3 2 1 1 0 1 7 -6
4. Germany 1 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1
  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

Spain

  • Win vs. JAP: ESP qualify as group winner.
  • Draw vs. JAP: ESP qualify as group winner if CRC lose or draw. ESP qualify as group runner-up if CRC win.
  • Loss vs. JAP: ESP eliminated if CRC win. ESP can qualify as runner-up or suffer elimination on tiebreakers with CRC (if CRC draw) or GER (if GER win).

Japan

  • Win vs. ESP: JAP qualify for knockouts as group winner (if CRC lose or draw) or as runner-up depending on tiebreakers (if CRC win).
  • Draw vs. ESP: JAP can qualify as group runner-up (CRC draw) or qualification will come down to tiebreakers (if GER win).
  • Loss vs. ESP: Japan are eliminated.

Costa Rica

  • Win vs. GER: CRC qualify as group winner (if ESP-JAP draw) or group runner-up (if ESP win), including based on tiebreakers (if JAP win)
  • Draw vs. GER: CRC qualify as group runner-up only if JAP loses. (JAP win or draw and CRC are eliminated.)
  • Loss vs. GER: CRC eliminated from World Cup.

Gernany

  • Win vs. CRC: GER qualify as runner-up with JAP loss. GER can qualify as runner-up or suffer elimination based on tiebreakers with JAP (ESP-JAP draw) or ESP (if ESP lose).
  • Draw or Loss vs. CRC: GER eliminated

World Cup Group F scenarios to advance

The only verdict handed down in Group F is that Canada are mathematically eliminated. That leaves three teams competing for two berths.

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Croatia 4 2 1 0 1 4 1 +3
2. Morocco 4 2 1 0 1 2 0 +2
3. Belgium 3 2 1 1 0 1 2 -1
4. CanadaE 0 2 0 2 0 1 5 -4
  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

Croatia

  • Win vs. BEL: CRO qualifies as group winner.
  • Draw vs. BEL: CRO qualifies as group winner (if MOR draws or loses) or group runner-up (if MOR wins)
  • Loss vs. BEL: CRO qualifies as runner-up only if MOR lose. CRO eliminated with MOR win or draw.

Morocco

  • Win vs. CAN: MOR qualify as winner or runner-up (depending on CRO result and potential tiebreakers with CRO).
  • Draw vs. CAN: MOR qualify as runner-up.
  • Loss vs. CAN: MOR qualify as runner-up with BEL loss. Can qualify as runner-up with BEL draw (based on tiebreakers). MOR eliminated with BEL win.

Belgium

  • Win vs. CRO: BEL qualify either as group winner (if MOR draws or loses) or runner-up (if MOR wins).
  • Draw vs Croatia: BEL can qualify as group runner-up only if MOR lose by four or more goals (if MOR loses by three goals, the goals scored tiebreaker will come into play).
  • Loss vs. Croatia: BEL are eliminated.

Canada

  • Canada are already eliminated.

World Cup Group G scenarios to advance

Brazil have already clinched one of the two berths with the other three teams competing for the second one. 

A final day head-to-head battle between Euro forces Switzerland and Serbia will likely determine the second qualifier from Group G.

  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

Brazil

  • Win or draw vs. CMR: BRA advance as group winner.
  • Loss vs. CMR: BRA advance as group winner if SUI draw or lose. BRA advance as winner or runner-up based on tiebreakers if SUI win.

Switzerland

  • Win vs. SRB: SUI advance as group winner (on tiebreakers if BRA lose) or group runner-up (if BRA win or draw)
  • Draw vs. SRB: SUI advance as group runner-up if CMR draw or lose. SUI can advance or be eliminated based on tiebreakers if CMR win.
  • Loss vs. SRB: SUI eliminated.

Cameroon

  • Win vs. BRA: Tiebreakers to determine whether CMR eliminated or advance as runner-up if SRB win or SRB-SUI draw. (CMR need to win by two goals to claim tiebreaker if SRB-SUI draw.) CMR eliminated if SUI win. 
  • Draw or loss vs. BRA: CMR eliminated.

Serbia

  • Win vs. SUI: SRB qualify as runner-up if CMR lose or draw. Tiebreakers determine runner-up if CMR win.
  • Draw or loss vs. SUI: SRB eliminated.

World Cup Group H scenarios to advance

Portugal are through after winning their first two matches and they’ll face a desperate South Korea team coached by former Portugal international Paulo Bento.

Ghana could be the surprise qualifier in Group H, and they can also exact some revenge against Uruguay in the process on the final day. The gut-wrenching Luis Suarez hand ball in the 2010 quarterfinals still stings and the Black Stars can eliminate La Celeste with a win.

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. PortugalQ 6 2 2 0 0 5 2 +3
2. Ghana 3 2 1 1 0 5 5 0
3. S. Korea 1 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1
4. Uruguay 1 2 0 1 1 0 2 -2
  • Q = Qualified to Round of 16
  • E = Eliminated

Portugal

  • Win or draw vs. KOR: POR advance as group winner.
  • Loss vs. KOR: POR advance as group winner if GHA draw or lose. POR advance as winner or runner-up based on tiebreakers if GHA win.

Ghana

  • Win vs. URU: GHA advance as group winner (on tiebreakers if POR lose) or group runner-up (if POR win or draw)
  • Draw vs. URU: GHA advance as group runner-up if KOR draw or lose. GHA can advance or be eliminated based on tiebreakers if KOR win.
  • Loss vs. URU: GHA eliminated.

South Korea

  • Win vs. POR: Tiebreakers to determine whether KOR eliminated or advance as runner-up if URU win or URU-GHA draw. (KOR need to win by two goals to claim tiebreaker if URU-GHA draw.) KOR eliminated if GHA win. 
  • Draw or loss vs. POR: KOR eliminated.

Uruguay

  • Win vs. GHA: URU qualify as runner-up if KOR lose or draw. Tiebreakers determine runner-up if KOR win.
  • Draw or loss vs. GHA: URU eliminated.

How many teams advance from World Cup group stage?

A total of 16 teams advance from the group stage to the Round of 16, as the name of the round suggests.

Given a total of eight groups, it’s only the top two teams in each group that will advance and build out the field for the Round of 16.

The knockout bracket starting with the Round of 16 is fixed and predetermined prior to the tournament. The first- and second-place finishers in each group (A1 & A2, B1 & B2, etc.) are slotted into the bracket as previously designated.

How do teams advance in World Cup play?

The four nations in each group play a round-robin style format with each team playing the other three opponents.

A victory is rewarded with three points, a draw with one point, and a loss with none. The teams are ranked within the group by the number of points obtained across the three group matches.

The top two finishers in the group based on points advance to the knockout rounds, beginning with the Round of 16 in 2022.

If teams are level on points, there are established tiebreakers to resolve those situations and determine the final placement (see below).

Once teams reach the single-elimination knockouts, it’s survive and advance. If teams are tied after 90 minutes in the knockouts they’ll go to extra time, and penalty kicks, if necessary.

What are the World Cup group tiebreakers?

If teams are tied on points in their group — three for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss — then the following tiebreakers will be used, as outlined in the official tournament rules (page 21):

  1. Overall goal difference: Superior goal difference in all group matches (goals scored minus goals conceded);
  2. Overall goals scored: Most goals scored in all group matches;
  3. Head-to-head points: Most points in group matches between tied teams only;
  4. Head-to-head goal difference: In group matches between tied teams only;
  5. Head-to-head goals scored: Most goals scored in group matches between tied teams only;
  6. Disciplinary points (‘Fair Play’): As per a FIFA formula based on yellow and red cards;
  7. Drawing of lots.

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