USA World Baseball Classic scenarios: What the United States needs to reach WBC quarterfinals

The United States’ path to the quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic is easy to figure: Beat Colombia on Wednesday.

After the United States defeated Canada Monday night, they reclaimed the driver’s seat to get out of Pool C after Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of Mexico. Heading into Wednesday’s final day of pool play, the standings are as follows:

Great Britain gave every team it played except Canada some serious issues, but ultimately is the only team eliminated heading into the final day.

The United States is playing Colombia, whereas Canada is playing Mexico. Mexico defeating Great Britain Tuesday ruled out a second pool where all five teams go 2-2 — either Canada or Mexico will finish 3-1.

In other words, the winner of that game is in. And if the United States wants to get in, here’s what has to happen.

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What record is generally needed to advance?

Generally speaking, 3-1 is a sure thing to get a team to move forward. Going 2-2 often leads to some messy tiebreakers, which will laid out below.

With three teams entering the final day in Pool C at 2-1, at least one of those teams is inevitably going to need some help to move on.

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United States World Baseball Classic odds

According to Fanduel, the United States are still among the outright favorites to win the World Baseball Classic, joining pre-tournament favorites the Dominican Republic and Japan.

Japan are currently the favorites at +210. USA is at +340, and the Dominican Republic, who need to win Wednesday to advance, are at +360. Venezuela has helped its odds the most, sitting at +420.

Scenario A: United States wins

If Team USA beats Colombia, they’re in the quarterfinals and will either play Venezuela or the winner of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

• If Canada wins: Team USA finishes first in Pool C by virtue of tiebreaker, would play winner of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic
• If Mexico wins: Team USA finishes second in Pool C by virtue of tiebreaker, would play Venezuela

Neither quarterfinal matchup in Miami is especially enviable, but Pool D was never going to produce easy compeition.

Scenario B: United States loses

If Team USA loses, things get WAY more complicated. That would guarantee a three-way tie for second. The United States, Colombia, and the loser of Mexico and Canada would all be tied for second, and the winner of Mexico and Canada would clinch first.

• If Canada wins: If Canada defeated Mexico in this scenario, the United States would be 1-1, Mexico would be 1-1, and Colombia would be 1-1. From there, we would move to the second tiebreaker: runs allowed per defensive out.

         Here’s how these teams shake out in that department heading into the final game:

• If Mexico wins: Should Mexico win, Canada would go to the tiebreaker, where all three teams are still 1-1 against each other. As such, we would move to the same tiebreaker as if Mexico had lost. If that happens, the standings look like this after three games:

Things are far simpler than they appear, however. Due to the United States’ infinitesimal lead over Colombia in runs per out, Wednesday is effectively must-win for the United States.

If the United States lost to Colombia 1-0, for example, Colombia’s runs per out would be 0.144. The United States’ would be 0.147. In other words, The United States can’t have fewer runs than Colombia after all of the outs recorded Wednesday. They have to win.

Merrill Kelly is on the mound for the United States, so no pressure on his part. The final game of pools is sure to be rife with drama. And ultimately, the only team the United States can concern themselves with is themselves.