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The final leg of the PGA Florida swing closes at Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship. Atypical of Florida courses, Innisbrook has elevation changes, bottleneck fairways and some resemblance of a dogleg on nearly every hole. Played as a ‘less than driver’ course, there are five long par-3s and four par-5s that either have a dogleg or even a double dogleg. With that, I’m targeting players that can play positional golf.
Here are three players that make solid Top 40 or Top 20 options that can contend for an outright win.
Ben Griffin
Top 40 -135
Top 20 +225
Top 10 +375
Top 5 +750
To win +5000
The North Carolina native doesn’t have the impressive resume of results you’d be looking for when wagering on a player, with only nine top-10 finishes to his name. However, Griffin is playing some good golf. In seven tournaments this year, he has six top-40 finishes, including a T12 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Griffin’s ball striking has been inconsistent as of late, losing strokes off the tee in two of his last four events while losing over four strokes with his irons in the Arnold Palmer tournament. What has me intrigued: Griffin is typically a solid ball striker, but this year, he has improved his short game.
After losing strokes around the green previously, Griffin has gained in five straight events while gaining strokes putting in his last three. What could be a benefit: Griffin is only a positive putter on Bermuda greens. Although Innisbrook is overseeded with Poa Trivialis, the Bermuda grass could be emerging from dormancy, similar to what we saw last week in the Players Championship.
Ryan Gerard
Top 40 +110
Top 20 +375
Top 10 +600
Top 5 +1200
To win +8000
This is a North Carolina appreciation post. The Raleigh native turned pro just last year. The truth is, this is a bit of a dart considering we only have strokes gained data from one event he’s played at the Honda Classic in February as a qualifier. It was a good tournament for him, finishing solo fourth gaining seven strokes with his irons and nearly 2.5 strokes with his putter. Although there’s little data, Gerard followed that up with a T11 in Puerto Rico, after earning a spot to play with his top-10 finish the week before. In a weaker field like this, I’m willing to take a flier on someone who is potentially on a bit of a heater, since his last tournament on the Korn Kerry Tour was a T3 in early February. Keep the streak going!
Victor Perez
Top 40 -110
Top 20 +280
Top 10 +450
Top 5 +900
To win +5500
The Frenchman has two titles this year on the Euro Tour, having gained strokes ball striking in all three of his last tournaments played while also gaining strokes with the flat stick. Considered another dart, Perez hasn’t played in the States since the U.S. Open in June. His last top 20 in the U.S. was the June 2021 Players Championship. Perez is showing consistency, regardless of where he’s playing, which makes him an enticing Top 40 option, or Top 20 if you’re feeling risky.