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How about a little football to go alongside your Thanksgiving dinner? The NFL has a triple-header on deck for the Thursday holiday and features a number of playoff hopefuls and Super Bowl threats. In fact, the .650 win percentage between these teams is the second-highest since the league expanded to three games on Thanksgiving. Five of the six teams playing on Thanksgiving also own a winning record, which ties a league-high.
As we do every week for the entire slate, we’ve collected all of the best Thanksgiving picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them all in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional featured content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
Time: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -10
Current: Bills -9.5
“This has the makings of a game with a lot of offense. Both teams can score, but the Bills can really score. They will put up a big number here as Josh Allen wins a second straight game in Detroit after beating the Browns last week in the same building. The track is fast and the Bills can fly. The Lions won’t keep up.” — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst, has the Bills covering the 9.5-point spread and has this game going well over the 54.5 total.
“The Lions have been rolling the past few weeks, but I just have a hard time betting against Josh Allen with this line under double figures. Yes, Detroit’s defense has played better in its previous three games, but that was against the Packers, Bears and Giants. Buffalo’s offense is a different animal entirely. Allen has historically played well on Thanksgiving as the Bills are 2-0 SU in both games and the QB registered a 100+ passer rating in each contest. While I believe Buffalo’s offense can get into the 30s indoors at Ford Field, I don’t see the Lions doing that in this setting. Specifically, I have my doubts because of the protection in front of Jared Goff. Detroit grades as the 24th-ranked pass-blocking team in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the third-best pass rush team in the league under the same grading system.” — CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan on why he is taking the Bills -9.5 as one of his best bets for Week 12.
“Allen has actually crossed this line just once over the last four games, but I think he hits the Over here against a bad defense. The star quarterback is averaging a career-high 293 passing yards per game this season.” — CBS Sports NFL betting guru Jordan Dajani on why is likes Josh Allen to go OVER his 281.5 passing yards prop at -127.
“On paper, this feels like a game that the Lions have zero chance to win, but if I’ve learned one thing in my life about picking NFL games, it’s that teams always seem to win when you think they have zero chance to win, especially when they’re coached by a guy who’s most famous quote involves biting kneecaps off. I have no idea what Dan Campbell eats at his house on Thanksgiving Day, but there’s a 50% chance it’s kneecaps.
“The big problem in this game for the Lions is that they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this year and they’ll be playing a Bills offense that has been one of the best. The Lions have given up the most yards per game and the most points per game and that’s definitely not a good combination when the team you’re playing ranks second in both points scored and yards per game.
“If this game had been played four weeks ago, I’d probably have picked the Bills by 30, but the Lions are suddenly one of the hottest teams in football. If you combine that with the fact that the Bills have been in a slight offensive rut, that’s the recipe for a game that could go down to the wire. I told you we’d talk about recipes.” — CBS Sports NFL writer and Pick Six Podcast co-host John Breech on why he is picking the Bills to narrowly beat the Lions, 30-27.
Time: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Cowboys -7
Current: Cowboys -9
“This has the makings of a Cowboys rout, almost in identical fashion to Dallas’ 40-3 win over Minnesota just a few days ago. New York showed some cracks in its foundation in the loss to Detroit and lost several key contributors, including top cornerback Adoree’ Jackson. That should allow the Cowboys offense to continue to hum, but it’s their defense that could really put the game away. The Giants are allowing the second-highest pressure rate (45%) in the NFL this season, while the Cowboys are applying the most pressure to opposing quarterbacks in the league. In Week 3, Dallas pressured Daniel Jones 27 times in the win, which is the third-most of any game this season. With the Giants as banged up as they are and Dallas playing at a championship-caliber level, they’ll win this by double digits.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he is taking Dallas to cover against New York as one of his five locks of the week.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, enters Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-109 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Now, the model is eyeing a six-leg Thanksgiving parlay that would pay nearly 50-1. One of those legs is the Over 45-point total in the Cowboys-Giants game. As for the rest of it, you’ll have to go to SportsLine.
“When these two teams met back in Week 3, the Cowboys won 23-16 and that was with Cooper Rush. In that game, the Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones five times and picked him off once and I think we’re going to see more of the same on Thursday. The Cowboys have won 10 of the past 11 games in this series and I don’t see that domination ending this week.
“This is the first time these two teams have played on Thanksgiving since 1992. Thirty years ago, the Cowboys destroyed the Giants 30-3 and then went on to win the Super Bowl two months later. I’m not saying that’s going to happen this year, but I’m not not saying that.” — CBS Sports’ John Breech on why he likes the Cowboys to trounce the Giants, 31-17.
“The Giants are coming off of a horrible showing at home against the Lions, which means they might have been looking ahead to this one. The Cowboys righted things in their blowout victory over the Vikings. The defense dominated, and it will dominate here as well. The Giants are too limited on offense.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco says the Cowboys defense will once again lead them to victory.
Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Vikings -3.5
Current: Vikings -3
The SportsLine Projection Model has simmulated the NFL Thanksgiving Day games 10,000 times and examining the dozens of player props from Caesars Sportsbook. We can tell you the model says Vikings WR Jefferson goes Over 88.5 receiving yards (-117), with the model projecting he finishes with 99 on average. However, the model also says that another star flies over his yardage total and offers one prop witha plus-money payout. To see what those are, go check out SportsLine.
“Now, this is the most intriguing Thanksgiving game to me. The last time the Patriots played on Thanksgiving, they beat the New York Jets 49-19 in the “Butt Fumble” matchup. Speaking of beating the Jets, that’s what the Patriots did last week on an 84-yard punt return touchdown with just five seconds left in the fourth quarter. They looked like the better team all afternoon, but it took them an incredibly long time to prove it. I thought Mac Jones was OK. He completed 23 of 27 passes for 246 yards, which is the highest completion percentage Jones has had this season (85.2%). Wind played a part in this matchup, but the defense was outstanding. They sacked Zach Wilson four times and allowed just 103 yards of total offense! In ranking the teams competing for wild card spots in the AFC, I actually have the Patriots at No. 2. They could go on a second-half run — just like they did last year.
“As for the Vikings, yeah, that 40-3 loss to the Cowboys is going to take some time to get over. Still, they can take a page out of the Cowboys’ book and force everyone to forget about it with a dominant win on Thanksgiving. Even with Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson, I can’t help but be impressed by New England’s defense. This unit has allowed just 7.7 points per game over the past three contests, and is allowing a 19 percent conversion rate on third downs during that same span. The Patriots own the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season, while the Vikings allow the fifth-highest pressure rate. I will say that out of the three Thanksgiving contests, I’m the least confident on this one when it comes to picking a side. I’ll take the Patriots to surprise here, and I like the Over.” — CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani is smelling an upset in Minnesota as the Patriots SU beat the Vikings in the Thanksgiving finale while also hitting the Over.
R.J. White, a Fantasy and gambling editor for CBS Sports, consistently crushes as SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert. On top of owning a 445-378-24 on his ATS picks from 2017-21, he has been particularly sharp when it comes to the Vikings. On hi slast 84 picks involving Minnesota, White has gone 52-28-4 (+$2,053), so you’ll certainly want to know where he’s leaning on Thursday night. To see that pick, head on over to SportsLine.
“The Vikings were embarrassed Sunday at home, getting blown out by the Cowboys. They will bounce back and play better here. The New England offense is struggling, but the defense is playing well. Even so, I think the Vikings will respond on offense in this one to win it. The Patriots offense is bad.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco on why he is taking the Vikings to beat New England by 10 in the Thanksgiving finale.