NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 3, 2023: Model high on Chiefs and Dolphins


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At 8-9 over their last 17 games, the Titans have been inconsistent on the field, but they are the streakiest team iwhen it comes to the spread. During this span, Tennessee covered its first eight games, then failed to cover the next six, only to go 3-0 against the spread since then. The Titans will put their latest ATS winning streak on the line against Cleveland on Sunday, with the Browns 3-point home favorites in the Week 3 NFL odds. Cleveland is 4-1 against the spread over its last five home games, so a recent trend is also in its favor to back the Browns with Week 3 NFL bets.

The road team has won straight-up the last three times these squads have squared off. However, which side should you back to cover and who should you get behind for the other five games with Week 3 NFL spreads of a field goal or less? All of the Week 3 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 3 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 164-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 18-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 3 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 3 NFL picks is that the Chiefs (-12.5) cover against the Bears in almost 60% of simulations. Week 1 notwithstanding, the Chiefs have fared quite well against the spread versus NFC opponents. They have covered in six of their last seven games against the NFC, compared to just a 4-11 ATS mark versus AFC foes since 2022.

Justin Fields is 2-12 on the road in his career, and since he was drafted in 2021, the Bears are a league-worst 6-20 against the spread overall. That is four more against the spread losses than any other team, and Fields’ play is a big reason why. He’s been sacked an average of four times per road start and now faces a Chiefs defense that took down Trevor Lawrence four times last week.

The model predicts Kansas City to rack up five sacks and multiple takeaways as well. Very few offenses can overcome that, especially a Bears one that ranked last in passing in 2022. Kansas City (-12.5) is projected to cover with points to spare as the Chiefs win against the spread in almost 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 3 NFL predictions: The Dolphins (-6.5) cover the spread at home versus the Broncos. There are nine 2-0 teams left standing, but Miami is one of just two who opened the year with back-to-back road wins. Likewise, there are nine 0-2 teams, and the Broncos are one of two that have opened with back-to-back home losses.

It’s reasonable to think that Miami will be even better in its home debut while the Broncos will struggle even more away from the Mile High City. One can’t underestimate what it’s like going from the thin air of Denver to the humidity of South Florida, but the history of these teams when playing in Miami indicates the drastic adjustment one has to make. The Broncos are 1-8 all-time when playing at Miami and needed overtime for that one victory.

The 1 p.m. ET kickoff doesn’t do the Broncos any favors either with them traveling two time zones and having to adjust their body clocks. Denver lost all four of its games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET last season, while the Dolphins went 8-5 at this time. Game location and time shouldn’t be discounted when it comes to Week 3 NFL bets, and the model took those into account. It has Miami winning by double digits and covering as 6.5-point favorites in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 3 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 3 NFL schedule, and it’s identified two must-see underdogs who pull off huge upsets. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.

Week 3 NFL odds, lines, spreads

Get full NFL picks at SportsLine

Sunday, Sept. 24

Colts at Ravens (-8, 44)

Titans at Browns (-3.5, 39.5)

Falcons at Lions (-3, 46)

Saints at Packers (-1, 42.5)

Texans at Jaguars (-8, 44)

Broncos at Dolphins (-6.5, 48)

Chargers at Vikings (-1, 54)

Patriots at Jets (+2.5, 36)

Bills at Commanders (+6.5, 43)

Panthers at Seahawks (-5.5, 42)

Cowboys at Cardinals (+12.5, 43)

Bears at Chiefs (-12.5, 48)

Steelers at Raiders (-2.5, 43)

Monday, Sept. 25

Eagles at Buccaneers (+5, 46)  

Rams at Bengals (-2.5, 43.5)

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