Products You May Like
The betting market for NFL MVP has been all over the place in recent weeks. Josh Allen was a sizable favorite at this time last month. However, the Bills lost a few games, Allen struggled and dealt with an elbow injury and suddenly his advantage was gone. Since then, Patrick Mahomes has become the MVP favorite with names like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa not too far behind him in the odds.
With Week 13 now in the books, another quarterback has shot up the odds board. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals pulled off a big win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Burrow was surgical, completing 26 of 31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns. He also added a score on the ground. The Bengals are very much alive to win the AFC North. As a result, Burrow now enters the MVP picture.
Burrow’s odds have shot up
At the start of the month, Joe Burrow was 25-to-1 to win NFL MVP. He wasn’t really a part of the discussion. Even in recent weeks, a lot of the discourse has been about Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and Tagovailoa. Burrow was having a solid season, but it would be hard to consider it an MVP-level season.
However, Burrow and the Bengals flipped a switch once the calendar hit November. Over their last four games, the Bengals are 4-0 and they’re averaging 31.5 points per game. Burrow has completed 93 of 135 passes (69%) for 1,117 yards, eight touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s also added 92 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns over that time.
Burrow’s odds to win MVP came down a bit. He was at 18-to-1 to win the award prior to Week 13. However, after his highly efficient performance in a big win, Burrow’s odds dropped even further. Burrow is now +800 to win NFL MVP. Those are the third-best odds in the league behind only Mahomes and Hurts. He’s left guys like Allen and Tagovailoa behind him.
Does Burrow have a path?
Burrow is a former Heisman winner and first overall pick. He’s been in the spotlight of football fans for quite a few years now. He captivated the football world during Cincinnati’s improbable run to the Super Bowl last season. However, he’s rarely mentioned in the top tier alongside names like Mahomes and Allen.
Burrow’s Bengals now have a very good chance to win the AFC North with Lamar Jackson expected to miss a few weeks for the Baltimore Ravens. Burrow has a late-afternoon game against Tom Brady in two weeks. A few weeks later, he’ll get a head-to-head matchup with Allen on a Monday night right after the New Year. Then, in Week 18, the Bengals have a head-to-head matchup with the Ravens. There’s a chance that the division could be on the line in that game.
In other words, Burrow will have some solid opportunities over the last month of the season to cement his MVP candidacy. If the Bengals keep winning and Burrow keeps performing at the level he’s currently at, he’ll certainly get some love. At +800 to win the award, it feels like there could still be some value on Burrow at that price.
The MVP race has seen some twists and turns already in the last month. There will surely be more down the stretch. The Chiefs have the easiest schedule remaining. You can argue that’s a good thing for Mahomes’ case. Hurts and the Eagles still have a big game against the Cowboys on deck. Those two are the betting favorites, but Burrow has crashed their party.
Current MVP odds
These are the current odds to win NFL MVP at BetMGM:
-
Patrick Mahomes (+120)
-
Jalen Hurts (+150)
-
Joe Burrow (+800)
-
Josh Allen (12-to-1)
-
Tua Tagovailoa (12-to-1)
-
Geno Smith (66-to-1)
-
Tyreek Hill (80-to-1)